Frost Log — July 30, 2026

Executive Summary

Eviction eve, and the week's real vote quietly changed hands. Drew and Barrett spent the evening re-pitching keep-Mallory to Devens and Dee — and this time got a yes, which unsettled them precisely because it came so easily. They were right to squint: the same power circle held its own check-in about evicting Mallory anyway, specifically to punish Drew and Barrett and force Kamu into a tiebreak, and Kamu told Lala directly he counts the vote "7–5 in her favor" and would break a tie her way. The forgotten nominee may now be the protected one. Meanwhile Devens locked Taylor into the secret three with him and Kamu — she agreed to his face and panicked the moment he left — and Angela admitted to Dee she isn't sure Drew ever actually said "Red Corner" by name, dissolving the evidence under a coalition that no longer needs it. Jason, whose Thursday remains a pure comp question, became the first non-insider to guess out loud that Devens might hold a power; nobody followed the thread. Block Buster 3 and the live eviction land tonight, and for the first time in three weeks, the outcome on one branch is genuinely contested.

The Cold Read

Read 1: The keep-Mallory "yes" is starting to look like a hunting blind, and Drew's own instincts told him so before ours did. Assemble the window's vote evidence in one place. Kamu gave Lala a 7–5 count in her favor with a tiebreak pledge attached ▴. The vets held a check-in on evicting Mallory instead of Lala — explicitly framed as punishing Barrett and Drew and forcing Kamu to break a tie ▴. Taylor is now pledged to the power pair and privately resigned to voting with them. And at three in the morning Kamu was musing to Drew about Mallory's exit and sketching Thursday logistics — seat at 4:55, tell Melody at 4:45, "on ice in the back room" ▴ — which is not the planning of a man who expects Mallory to stay. Against that: Devens and Dee said yes to Drew and Barrett's keep-Mallory pitch, after initial resistance, and asked Drew to go work Kamu. Drew and Barrett walked out of that meeting saying they didn't trust how easily the yes came. They shouldn't. The "force Drew's hand" doctrine we booked two days ago has found its cheapest possible mechanism: let Drew campaign hard for Mallory, bank his exposure, and then take Mallory out anyway — or let a 6–6 tie put the eviction in Kamu's mouth while everyone else's hands stay clean. Yesterday's counter-read argued the renegade bloc had molted into a keep-Mallory majority with the power structure's blessing. Today's evidence says the blessing may be the trap.

Read 2: Taylor spent the day becoming the most-owned player in the house, and being owned by everyone is a hazard, not a portfolio. Devens walked up, asked her to confirm the three with him and Kamu, and got an enthusiastic yes — followed within minutes by a private spiral: "I think I might have to vote with them. I don't wanna ruin what I have with Devens and Kamu." Meanwhile Melody's camp has anointed her "the deciding vote," she has a standing promise to Lala she repeated to at least three people ▴, and she spent the afternoon pushing Melody — through tears — to keep Jason. Count the claims on her: the power pair's secret three, the renegades' swing-vote math, Lala's promise, Jason's cause. Every camp believes Taylor is theirs, which means every camp will read Thursday's vote as a loyalty referendum on her specifically. And the danger is already priced in one room she can't see: Haley told Devens flatly she'd nominate Drew, Taylor, and Lala if she won HOH ▴. Taylor is simultaneously the power structure's newest asset and its next-tier target, and the gap between those two facts is one HOH comp wide.

Read 3: The Red Corner accusation is dissolving, and it no longer matters — the coalition it built has outgrown its evidence. Angela admitted to Dee this window that she isn't sure Drew ever said "Red Corner" by name ▴. Sit with that: the crisis that produced the denial script, the Haley cover story, and a night of 2 AM containment work was built on an accusation its own author can't stand behind. But watch what didn't change. Devens: "I can't trust him." Dee: "I would backdoor Drew" — Devens: "I would, too" ▾. Haley's hypothetical nomination lists lead with him. Devens, per the broadcast, told Angela days ago he hopes to win HOH so he can be the one to do it. The accusation was scaffolding; the building stands without it. That's the grim lesson for Drew, who spent the window apologizing to Kamu for "devil's advocating" and answering honestly that yes, Mallory would target Kamu and the vets: exculpatory evidence cannot un-form a coalition. Once a target is speakable in three separate rooms, the original citation stops being load-bearing.

Read 4: Kamu's passenger label needs a partial retraction — the man is doing real week-four work, just not week-three work. The HOH who miscounted his own electorate on Tuesday spent Wednesday giving his nominee a clean twelve-voter count, recruiting Yash into a "battle-tested" alliance, joking about "collecting alliance members like Pokémon," and — most tellingly — probing whether Dee is "a free agent or with Angela and Devens" and voicing doubt that the "icons" are actually unified ▴. That last item is the first documented crack in Kamu's deference to the vets, and it's the correct question a week early. He's still decorative in his own eviction — his inner circle is running the vote around him, and his tiebreak pledge to Lala may have been volunteered rather than extracted — but the Pokémon line is truer than the joke: he is stockpiling relationships against the moment his HOH immunity expires tonight.

Read 5: The Diamond Veto misdirection held another day — but the first non-insider just said the right name out loud. Jason, whipping votes with Lyric, speculated that Devens may hold a power, "possibly to change nominees or save himself" ▴. It didn't spread; hours later Kamu and Drew were still wondering whether Jason or Lyric has one ▾. A guess is not knowledge, and Jason has no evidence, no audience, and — depending on tonight — possibly no Thursday. But it's the closest anyone outside the container has come, and it lands the same week as Dee's still-unregistered slip in front of Angela. The secret is intact; the near-misses are accumulating.

Detailed Timeline

Boundary and early morning (7/29):

• ~01:00–05:40 — Extended Dee–Mallory kitchen conversation: Dee floats that "people are determined to evict her"; Mallory counts Drew, Barrett, Lyric, Melody, Angela as her keeps; Dee coaches "perception is reality," lock in mentally, don't cry ▾. Consistent in tone with Dee's booked two-layer coaching; single-channel, held as color.

Morning:

• 10:18 — Devens/Haley backyard banter about "Survivor Week" staging; color.
• 11:52 — Angela raises "rogue votes from last week" with Taylor; Taylor deflects. The 12–1 Rome vote's stray keep remains unattributed in-house, and Angela is the one still picking at it.
• 12:18–12:26 — Taylor advises Mallory against over-dealing, reaffirms she's "sticking to voting Lala no matter what, I promised," and points Mallory at Devens; Yash warns Mallory she doesn't have Chuk and coaches her Dee pitch ▾.

Midday — the whip network goes live ▴:

• 12:35–13:20 — Jason assigns campaign lanes (Mallory→Barrett, Taylor→Yash, Melody→Drew); Lyric confirms her vote to Jason; the two speculate Devens may hold a power — first non-insider naming of the actual holder, no spread observed. Melody presses Drew for Jason one last time — "not even a sliver": Jason "burnt too many." Melody warns Taylor she'll be "at the bottom of our side" if she flips against Mallory.
• 13:05–14:59 — Kamu gives Lala the real shape of the week ▴: "7–5 in your favor," tiebreak pledge, and a named split — Mallory has Drew/Barrett/Lyric/Melody (plus Jason if he's off); Lala has Dee/Devens/Chuk/Angela/Haley. Lala: "I'm cool with Haley now" — an olive branch aimed at a woman whose private verdict on her has never softened. Kamu separately recruits Yash ("battle-tested"), probes whether Dee is a free agent, calls Dee and Devens "shields... icons" and doubts their unity. Lyric to Mallory, half-joking: maybe Kamu's plan is making her fall for him so she won't nominate him.

Afternoon (extended, times unspecified) ▴:

• Angela does damage control with Haley over her Kamu confession — claims she was "just tired," walks the whole thing back. The cover story's beneficiary is now personally managing its fall-woman.
• Devens/Angela/Dee huddle: keep propping Kamu up as the nominal decision-maker and use him to steer Haley's vote; they joke about a hand-signal for the alliance. Note the architecture — the vets plan to deliver Haley's vote through Kamu, whichever way they point him.
• Devens locks Taylor into the three with him and Kamu; she agrees warmly, then privately: "fuck... I think I might have to vote with them." Activation achieved; conviction pending.
• Melody and Mallory formally abandon the Jason flip after Drew's stonewall — and agree to keep telling Jason they're with him, preserving him as a reachable Mallory vote. The deception program acquires a second author.
• Yash and Barrett agree the walk-back was Drew's doing and agree not to tell Devens ▴ — a misattribution worth savoring, given the plan actually reached Dee through Barrett himself within its first hour.
• The vets hold a check-in on voting out Mallory instead of Lala — framed as punishing Drew and Barrett and forcing a Kamu tiebreak ▴. The week's most consequential conversation, and it happened in the room Drew wasn't in.
• Jason's teapot goes quiet for the day; a gym session ends with him crying on the couch: "I miss gay people." Taylor pushes Melody hard to keep Jason — "anyone next to Lala has to stay" — and fails to move Drew.

Evening:

• Drew and Barrett pitch keep-Mallory to Devens and Dee ▴ — initial resistance, then agreement, with a tasking: go work Kamu. Drew and Barrett leave uneasy, "don't trust the vibe" of how easily the yes came. Their instrument is better calibrated than their whip count.
• Angela reprises the Drew accusation to Kamu — then admits to Dee she isn't sure Drew said "Red Corner" by name ▴. Booked as an amendment to the 7/28 crisis, not a new incident: the accusation's author has downgraded her own evidence.
• Kamu–Drew backyard: asked directly whether Mallory would target Kamu, Drew says yes — her and the vets. Honest, and expensive.
• HOH meeting (Dee, Devens, Drew, Kamu): no resolution on the vote; Drew argues Mallory's case down to "she gives me a break from Melody sometimes"; Dee visibly eye-rolls ▴.
• 22:39 — Haley to Devens: she'd nominate Drew, Taylor, and Lala, with Mallory as the backdoor ▴. Devens: "I can't trust him." This corroborates the same nomination list she'd floated more widely earlier in the evening ▾.
• ~19:41 — Brief feed cut mid-conversation as Kamu used "bloodline"/"bred with" phrasing with Dee and Drew ▾. Most plausibly a content-standards cut on unclear phrasing rather than anything strategic being hidden; noted only because a mid-sentence cut on a specific quote clears the bar for a mention.
• 22:31–22:49 — Devens to Dee on Drew: "showing his ass all over the place. He needs to go." Dee: "I would backdoor Drew." Devens: "I would, too" ▾. Matches the established doctrine; adds explicit backdoor language from both mouths. Dee flags Yash as "becoming an issue."
• ~22:30 — Have-Not-eve furniture: HOH fridge raid, hot tub cluster, Devens teasing Dee that Angela "makes it too obvious." Kamu, aside: "I can't believe how much I like Angela."

Late night (~03:21–03:55, 7/30) ▴:

• Kamu–Drew HOH sleepover. Kamu doubts a Melody HOH would target either of them; reiterates the Lyric-crush theory; floats "don't tell Mallory but we tell the girls where the votes are at" and wonders if the girls will "act emotional." Kamu sketches Thursday logistics — seated at 4:55, tell Melody at 4:45, "on ice in the back room" — and muses about Mallory's exit ("what will they do without her brittle and slop recipes"). Drew: "we are underestimating Lyric." Both still wonder whether Jason or Lyric holds a power. The room where the keep-Mallory campaign supposedly landed is planning the choreography of her eviction.

Broadcast material (Wednesday's pre-taped episode; all detail dated to origin, not this window):

• The Week 3 veto (origin 7/25) aired as "The Pickle Ball" — bracket detail: Mallory d. Lala, Kamu d. Jason, Lyric d. Haley, Mallory d. Kamu, Lyric d. Mallory; Lyric wins 82–47 ▴. Naming conflict flagged: feed sources, including the same day's promo, have called this comp "Bowlerina." Result unaffected; discrepancy carried, not resolved.
• Tea Party DR intent (origin 7/26): Kamu framed it as blowing up Jason's game so "no one will trust him going forward"; Jason's DR maps Dee/Devens/Angela + Kamu/Haley/Chuk as one bloc and wants to sow discord.
• A four-person alliance name — "Wolfpack," Drew and Barrett joining "after choosing their eviction side" — surfaced in episode recap framing (origin ~7/27) ▾. Context strongly implies a rename or overlap of the existing Drew/Melody/Mallory/Barrett core; single mention, flagged and shelved, not merged.
• Devens confronted Drew and Barrett about playing both sides (origin pre-7/29); they agreed then to sacrifice Mallory to prove loyalty — a position this window's live re-pitch supersedes. Devens to Angela, same era: on Drew, "I hope I win HOH — I want to be the one who does it."

Alliance Standings

1. Devens–Dee. Unmoved at the top and operating at full spread this window: conditional yes to the renegades' faces, Mallory-punish check-in behind their backs, joint backdoor-Drew language ▾, and a plan to route Haley's vote through Kamu. The Diamond Veto crack (Dee's 7/28 slip in front of Angela) stayed inert another day. Inbound edges: still everything. Outbound: still one, still unregistered.

2. The anti-Drew coalition (Devens, Kamu, Haley, Angela; Dee operationally adjacent). Now past the point of needing its founding evidence — Angela's admission that she can't verify her own accusation ▴ changed nothing about Haley's nomination lists, Devens' trust verdict, or the backdoor talk. A coalition that survives the collapse of its casus belli is held together by something sturdier: convergent self-interest.

3. The Handymen (Drew–Kamu, covert). Downgraded. The 3 AM sleepover shows the personal edge alive — but Kamu spent the window planning Mallory's exit past Drew's campaign, probing the icons' unity without him, and calling Devens his real number one two days ago. The spine still stands; the load-bearing has quietly moved to other walls.

4. Kamu–Devens–Taylor (secret three). Activated this window — Taylor's verbal buy-in is on the record, and so is her private panic thirty seconds later. Conditionally formed, one corner shaky; its first stress test is tonight's vote, where Taylor's promise to Lala and her pledge to the pair happen to point the same direction. The real test comes the first week they don't.

5. The renegade core (Drew, Melody, Mallory, Barrett; "Wolfpack" per broadcast framing ▾). Locked into keep-Mallory, reconfirmed in a four-person meeting — and possibly campaigning inside an ambush. Its internal hygiene remains poor: Yash and Barrett misattribute the plan's collapse to Drew, the Jason fiction now has three maintainers, and the group's read on its own yes-vote from the vets is "don't trust the vibe," which is the most accurate sentence any of them produced this week.

6. Giggle Girls (Melody, Mallory, Lyric). Feed coverage keeps re-announcing the trio's formation; it was booked Tuesday night and the date stands. Its entire near-term future is Mallory's Thursday.

7. Kamu–Yash ("battle-tested," courting). New edge under construction — Kamu recruiting, Yash reciprocating while hedging to Chuk. Two of the house's least-trusted counters counting each other.

8. Red Corner containment. Angela walked the confession back to Haley ("just tired") and downgraded her own evidence to Dee. The cover story is now protecting an accusation that may never have happened as described. Chuk remains fully outside; Drew remains unaware Kamu holds any version of it.

9. The Tool Shed. Fifth week as a flag of convenience: its members spent the window on opposite sides of a vote, and Melody has still never heard its name.

10. Drew–Melody. Joint custody of the Jason fiction deepens the operational edge; the structural asymmetry (Tool Shed withheld through yet another window of joint planning) is now the most durable one-way mirror in the house.

Conspicuous non-relationships: Devens noted it himself — Taylor's own circle "doesn't even talk to her" ▾, an isolation the secret three both exploits and papers over. Lala's information diet remains curated by others; Kamu's 7–5 count is the first real number anyone has handed her all week, and even that came from the man who nominated her. And Drew↔Devens direct conversation stayed thin while every room Devens sat in discussed Drew's exit.

Player Status

• Kamu (HOH, outgoing): Gave his nominee a truer count than his allies would have; pledged her a tiebreak; spent 3 AM planning the other nominee's exit. The passenger label retires half a notch — he's stockpiling week-four relationships while week three runs itself around him.
• Devens: Locked Taylor in, said yes to a campaign he may intend to break, and got named — once, by a nominee, without evidence — as the power-holder he actually is. The director's fingerprints stay off everything except our ledger.
• Dee: Eye-rolling Drew's pitch in the room, coaching Mallory in the kitchen, co-signing a backdoor in the bathroom ▾. Three layers, one operator; the slip stayed buried another day.
• Drew: Campaigned honestly, answered a direct question truthfully, and distrusted the yes he received — his best instincts and his worst position arriving in the same window. The coalition against him no longer needs its evidence.
• Barrett: Co-delivered the keep-Mallory pitch and co-owns the "don't trust the vibe" read — the first audit-shaped thought we've logged from him. Still counting Dee as an asset; still wrong.
• Angela: Downgraded her own accusation, walked back her own confession, and continued not registering the biggest secret in the house. Kamu, meanwhile, can't believe how much he likes her.
• Jason: Guessed the power-holder correctly with no way to know it, whipped votes through a network that's lying to him, and cried between workout sets. Tonight is a puzzle, and he's fast at puzzles ▾.
• Melody: Runs the Jason fiction, the Taylor pressure line, and the wall-count — nine for Mallory, six for Jason was the math that killed the flip ▴. Still hasn't heard the words "Tool Shed."
• Lyric: Confirmed her vote to Jason, coached Mallory at midnight, and got named by Drew as the one "we are underestimating" ▴. The house keeps assigning her the power Devens holds.
• Mallory: Nine votes on her side's count, five on the HOH's, and a 3 AM eulogy for her slop recipes already drafted upstairs. Her campaign was good; her information is worse than she knows.
• Lala: Received her first real number of the week — a favorable one — from the man who nominated her, and reached out to Haley without knowing Haley's nomination lists include her. Protected, possibly; informed, still not.
• Taylor: Pledged to the pair, promised to Lala, anointed the deciding vote by the renegades, and listed for nomination by Haley — all in one day. The most-claimed player in the house, panicking quietly about it.
• Yash: Courting Kamu, hedging to Chuk, distrusting Melody, misattributing leaks to Drew. Both camps now count him with a shrug, and Dee just flagged him as "becoming an issue."
• Chuk: Another dormant window — his sharpest contribution was calling Barrett "not a threat... just tall" ▾. Still the only inner-orbit player who knows nothing about any version of the breach.
• Haley: Told the power side her nomination board out loud, twice, to two audiences ▴. The fall-woman role she accepted Tuesday now sits under a coalition that no longer needs the story she agreed to tell.

Prediction Ledger

Evidence grades: A = said privately and backed by behavior; B = repeated behavior or multiple independent conversations; C = a single statement, possibly performed; D = inference from silence, body language, or the edit.

New predictions:

Repriced:

• P93 (if Jason self-saves, Lala evicted over Mallory) 65% → 45% — the week's biggest move. The vets' Mallory-punish check-in ▴, Kamu's 7–5-for-Lala count and tiebreak pledge ▴, Taylor's lock, and the 3 AM Mallory-exit choreography all cut against the branch; the keep-Mallory yes that anchored the old number now reads as possibly performed. Held above a coin-flip against Lala only by Haley's long-standing Lala animus and Dee's earlier Mallory-branch lean — the two camps' counts double-claim the same four voters, and someone is wrong.
• P97 (keep-Jason plan reaches Kamu before the eviction) 65% → 45% — the plan's death removed the carriers' urgency; the residual path is Dee or Devens weaponizing the corpse against Drew.
• P99 (Drew raises "Red Corner" by name to Kamu by 7/31) 50% → 30% — the accusation's own author can't confirm Drew ever said it; the prediction's premise is softer than we knew.
• P100 (Angela's source-role reaches Chuk or Haley by 7/31) 40% → 30% — Angela is now actively burying it, walking the confession back to Haley in person.
• P82 (Diamond Veto knowledge reaches a third houseguest by 7/31) 50% → 35% — the crack stayed inert, the misdirection toward Lyric and Jason held at 3 AM, and Jason's correct guess produced no spread and no registered knowledge.
• P98 (if Jason faces the live vote, at least three keep votes) 25% → 30% — Taylor spent the afternoon crying for his cause; one committed emotional vote plus Lyric's confirmed vote gets closer than the deception program intends.
• P94 (Melody learns the Tool Shed exists by 7/31) 30% → 25% — another full window of joint operations without the word being said.

Holding: P89 (Jason evicted if he faces the vote, 75%, at ceiling — the flip is dead, its former organizers now run disinformation for him); P90 (Jason wins Block Buster 3, 40%, resolves live tonight); P101 (Jason learns the movement won't save him before the live show, 20% — the fiction gained a maintainer, not a leak); P102 (Angela registers Dee's slip by 8/1, 25%); P103 (if Jason and Mallory are the final two nominees, Mallory stays with ten-plus votes, 60%); P104 (Barrett's Dee-leaks reach the renegade core by 8/1, 25% — the core just misattributed its own leak to Drew, which protects Dee's channel another week).

Resolved this window: none — the board resolves tonight. P95 (Dee or Devens voices tea-party doubts outside the pair by 7/30, 25%) expires at day's end with no occurrence through this window's close; final call next edition.

The Counter-Read

The lead read says the keep-Mallory yes was theater and Lala is quietly protected. The best honest case against: the yes was real, and it's the Lala-keep signals that are performance. Kamu's 7–5 count came in a reassurance conversation with a nominee — and reassuring nominees with favorable math is what HOHs do in this house every week; his tiebreak pledge cost him nothing on a branch he may never face. The vets' Mallory-punish discussion was a check-in on an option, not a whip operation — no votes were assigned, no count was run. Meanwhile the keep-Mallory position has real history behind it: Kamu's own private preference for keeping Mallory predates this week's chess, Dee leaned toward the Mallory branch days before Barrett ever pitched it, Devens has now said yes twice, and Haley's animus points at Lala, not Mallory. On this reading, Kamu's 3 AM "brittle and slop" musing was idle sleepover talk, the double-counted voters (Chuk, Angela, Haley, Taylor) break toward the side the vets actually whip — which is the side they told Drew they'd back — and Thursday ends with Lala evicted roughly as the old P93 said, making our reprice an over-update on one nominee-management conversation and one insomnia session. The discriminator arrives within hours: watch whether Dee and Devens actually deliver Chuk, Angela, and Haley for Mallory, and which way Taylor's hands shake.

Retrospective

Grading the July 29 edition against this window, ex ante branches preserved:

• Read 1 (counter-bloc euthanized itself; third scripted eviction likeliest): the Jason branch aged perfectly — the flip is dead, its founders now run the fiction, and P89 sits comfortably at ceiling. But "the majority barely had to work" undersold what the comp branch was becoming: yesterday's counter-read (the bloc molted into a keep-Mallory vehicle with the majority's co-signature) described the surface of this window better than the lead did — and then today's evidence complicated the counter-read too, since the co-signature may be bait. Scored: lead right on the main branch, counter-read half-right on the comp branch, neither anticipated the vets weaponizing their own yes. Process note: when two camps' whip counts double-claim the same four voters, the vote is contested no matter how settled either room sounds.
• Read 2 (Kamu the passenger, Devens running the week): amended. Devens' authorship held — the Taylor lock was his move and it landed. But Kamu produced a correct twelve-voter count, an independent recruitment track, and the first recorded doubt about the icons' unity. The passenger framing captured his week-three role and missed his week-four preparation; the signature file gets a new phase note rather than a reversal.
• Read 3 (Diamond Veto crack, amendment owed): holds — the crack stayed inert, and the new humility rule ("no exposed move yet reported") earned its keep within a day: Jason's correct guess is exactly the kind of near-miss the old superlative language would have left us flat-footed on.
• Read 4 (Barrett counting assets he doesn't own): reinforced with a twist — the renegade side misattributed its own leak to Drew, actively protecting the Barrett→Dee channel we flagged. But credit where due: Drew and Barrett's "don't trust the vibe" is the first audit instinct this alliance has shown, and it was aimed at exactly the right transaction.
• Read 5 (Taylor's stock better than her label): strongly vindicated — the secret three activated on schedule, and her dual repricing (asset in one room, nomination fodder in Haley's) sharpened into the most-claimed-player read above.
• Regime audit: TRENDING STRUCTURED held, and the new corollary — a counter-bloc earns regime weight only after surviving its first sunrise — was applied correctly by not promoting this window's vote contest to a regime change. The contest lives entirely on one comp branch; the main branch remains herded.
• Source hygiene: seventh consecutive recap-echo window — the Giggle Girls' formation re-reported as new, the Tea Party and veto re-detailed via broadcast — all dated back to origin. Genuinely new material extracted from inside the echo: the Pickle Ball bracket and score, Angela's hosting error, the Wolfpack name (flagged, not merged), and Devens' "I want to be the one who does it." The comp-naming conflict (Bowlerina vs. Pickle Ball) is carried unresolved rather than silently harmonized.

Coverage: July 29, 05:54 PT → July 30, 05:54 PT. Regime call: TRENDING STRUCTURED, held — the main branch (Jason facing the vote) remains herded at ceiling, but the comp branch (a Jason self-save triggering Lala versus Mallory) is now genuinely contested, with both camps double-counting the same four voters and the power circle possibly running its keep-Mallory yes as bait. Block Buster 3, the live eviction, and HOH4 land tonight (P89/P90/P93/P98/P101/P103/P108 in play), with Time Capsule Round 3 Friday. A secret Diamond Power of Veto remains live under every ceremony through Week 8; its containment carries one inert crack and one unspread correct guess. Confidence ceilings: nomination and flip predictions 45–70%, eviction-vote calls to 75% with documented multi-camp convergence, comp outcomes as branches only, no jury-class forecasts. Evidence grades: A = said privately and backed by behavior; B = repeated behavior or multiple independent conversations; C = a single statement, possibly performed; D = inference from silence, body language, or the edit. Sourcing markers: ▴ solid — multiple trusted sources or plainly seen on the feeds; ▾ thin — single-source or otherwise not nailed down.