Frost Log Stockwatch — September 28, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers post before tonight's Week 12 Roundtable goes live, so you can hold them against the show's in real time. Three houseguests remain, one comp decides the board, and every score below is win equity (seat odds times jury odds), not safety. This week those two measures diverge sharply for the man in the middle.

Versus the market

Last week's widest split was Drew: our 3 against the RHAP average of 6. The market was right. We wrote that only his own veto could save him. He won it, cast the lone Final Four vote that sent Dee to jury, and now holds the likeliest finalist chair in the house. Their 6 priced a seat our 3 wrote off.

Dee was the gap in the other direction: our 6 against the market's 8. Our number was closer, and still too high, since she left at four on Drew's single vote.

Devens (7) and Taylor (6) were exact. They split the first two parts of the final HOH, and neither match needed revising.

Season to date we run 0.48 low over 126 scored rows. The Drew miss is the purest case of that bias: we priced the branches running against him, and the market priced the comp column that broke them. Tonight's Drew moves two points toward the market.

Devens — 7

Flat, and still level at the top. His route is the best single pairing left. In a Devens–Drew final, the jurors' own experience goes to him about 80% of the time:

• Angela said on camera in the jury house that she wants Drew in next.
• Dee left the house saying "Drew loses this game now."

The debit is the gate. He has to win Part 3, where he's the underdog at 43 on preparation. He spent the week taking Drew's account of the retired jury-statement format on faith. Only today did he study the season's days alongside Drew,¹ and Drew told him it won't help.

It's win or nothing. Taylor's door is shut after two rejected pitches and an open argument. His on-camera promise to take Drew, repeated to Drew's family, is the most dependable signature on the board.

One jury-set note. His week of contempt for Taylor costs him nothing with sequestered jurors who never saw it. The exception is Taylor herself: she becomes the seventh juror in exactly the branch he wins, and she now leans Drew.

Drew — 5

Up two, all of it seat. He reaches the final two in roughly 85 of 100 futures without controlling any of them. That's the passenger's chair: the safest seat in the house, with the worst odds of winning from it.

His equity runs through one branch, and he named it himself this morning: Taylor wins Part 3 and takes him. Against her, the jury gives him about 38%. Against Devens, about 20%.

His only lever is accidental. Each time he tells Devens that Part 3 is the old crapshoot with nothing to study, he tilts the comp toward Taylor and the final toward his better pairing.

The cap is the jury room. Angela wants him next, Dee left saying he loses, and his warmest vote, Melody, is the room's outcast in Sunday's footage. That footage is a single edited scene, filmed before Dee arrived.

Taylor — 7

Up one, and level with Devens. She's the Part 3 favorite at 57 because she's preparing for the season-events question format production has run since BB20. Today her studying reportedly moved past dates into counting who won which HOHs, vetoes and Block Busters.¹ That's the who-did-what material the last edition's counter-read worried she'd skip.

If she wins Part 3, hers is the steadiest path on the board:

• She cuts Devens (85).
• She takes Drew (88).
• The sequestered jury favors her over Drew about 62–38.

Why the 7 now. Last week we held her short of 7 until she did something lack of access couldn't explain. Two things qualify:

• She won the Part 1 endurance comp over two men who had both beaten her at the wall.
• She spent the week preparing for the right comp while both opponents prepared for the wrong one.

The risk is her own frame. "Elitism, privilege, and power" is her case against Devens. It also lands on Angela and Dee, the returnee jurors she needs against Drew.

Biggest mover: Drew, 3 → 5. He went from the likeliest Final Four boot to the safest seat at three, which is our number moving toward where the market already had him.

¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.