Frost Log Stockwatch — September 21, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers post before tonight's Roundtable goes live, so they can be held against the room's in real time. They commit with the board reset twice in one afternoon: behind a six-hour feed outage Drew saved himself, Devens named Taylor, and Melody left as the fifth juror — the vote count hasn't reached the record yet — and when the feeds came back at half past four, Taylor was the Final Four HOH. Scores are win equity, seat odds times jury odds, not weekly safety, and this is a week where the two diverge for everyone on the board.

Versus the market

Last week the season's widest gap was Dee — our 5 against the RHAP average of 9 — with Barrett (3 vs 2), Melody (3 vs 2), Devens (5 vs 6) and Drew (4 vs 5) a point apart and Taylor and Yash exact. The week paid the market on most of it. Barrett left first Thursday; Melody won two comps that night and was gone by Monday, so their 2 held on outcome; Devens's 6 and Drew's 5 bought the comp wins that actually happened, and ours priced pledges that didn't matter once the veto was decided. Dee is the honest split: she survived a nomination on Devens's veto, not hers, and stands at four as the player Devens himself says goes home if Drew wins — the 9 bought the seat she's still in, the 5 bought the comp record that keeps renting it, and neither number priced the half the other did. Yash at 6 on both sides was evicted the same night, which closes our standing -1.2 on him the only way it could. Over 122 scored rows we run 0.45 low, 36 exact and 62 within a point; tonight's numbers move up the board and toward the market on Devens, and stay low on Dee for reasons in her entry.

Dee — 6

Up one on the shape of the board, not on the week. At three, the two people most likely standing next to her have each given her a reason to think they'd carry her — Devens said Saturday he doesn't "have it in him" to cut her, and her own Saturday read is that Taylor would bring her over Devens — so her conditional odds of a seat at two are the best in the house. The debit is the chair between here and there: Devens's afternoon branch table, said to the camera, ends with Dee leaving if Drew wins the veto, she finished five or six pieces in today's HOH puzzle,¹ and she hasn't won a comp since week seven. The signature holds — her decisions get made by comps she doesn't win — and this week the comp she needs is anyone's but Drew's. She spent the first hour after the feeds returned coordinating a Taylor pitch with Devens ("anything you say, I say the opposite"), which is a hub still routing; Melody arrived at jury with a final-two pledge received and no vote asked for, which is a juror warm and thin.

Devens — 7

Up two, the board's biggest rise alongside Taylor's, on the best week anyone has had: the double's veto, the Curse-week HOH, ten thousand dollars, and two evictions with his name on them — Yash leaves warm to him, Melody leaves after three days of silence and, reportedly, no hugs.¹ This week he is safe in every veto branch he can draw, and he drew them on the feeds at 16:42: Drew wins, Dee goes; Dee or Taylor wins, Drew goes. The debit is the seat after that. He told the camera last week he beats everyone but Dee, and everyone else has done the same arithmetic — his declared final-two partner has said on camera she has to "put a target over" him,¹ Drew told Dee Saturday that "everyone says Devens is the favorite," and Taylor is the opponent all three would rather sit beside. He said to Drew this morning that "the two of them are the only path" while holding an F2 with Dee — division of labor or a pledge stack of his own — and his realistic route to two runs through the final HOH, where his comp column is the best on the board.

Drew — 3

Down one, for reading the winner correctly and becoming her target in the same morning. "She reminds me exactly of the person who won last season," at ten; "she's got winner energy, I was right… at minimum third," at half past four. Under Taylor's key he is the eviction in three of four veto branches — Devens's table says so, Taylor's standing target-Drew signature says so, and Dee and Devens spent their first private minutes agreeing to cut him if either wins. Only his own veto saves him, and the comp column gives him a real shot: two vetoes, two Block Busters, second in today's puzzle.¹ If he wins it he is the sole vote and Devens expects him to send Dee, which delivers a final three where his only winning pair — Taylor — is the one person who just nominated him. Jury: Barrett and Yash hostile, Lala a zero, Angela's villain permission, and Melody's ballot hinging on his today, which we don't have; "no Crossovers finale, that's canceled" is his own price on the week.¹

Taylor — 6

Up two, from sixth nomination to the only guaranteed seat at three. The seat column did the work: she won the HOH that decides who sits at three, and all three others have separately concluded she's the person to sit next to at two — Drew because she's the only one he thinks he beats, Dee because she thinks Taylor brings her, Devens by elimination. That is the goat paradox from the theory of the game running in the open: safe to keep is dangerous to sit beside, and both men said so this morning — Devens to Drew that he's worried about Taylor as a "sleeper winner," Drew that she is last year's winner again. Jury: Yash and Melody warm, Angela evicted on her ballot, Barrett neutral, Lala unpriced; the ceiling is Devens, whom she does not beat on what jurors have seen. Held short of a 7 by the discipline the framework owes itself — her invisibility to the ledger is still consistent with lack of access as much as restraint, and this HOH is her first authored eviction; how she runs it, and whom she nominates beside Drew, is the discriminator.

Biggest mover: Taylor, 4 → 6 — a week that began with her named as the pawn and ended with her holding the key, matched in size only by Devens's rise and priced by the house before it was priced here.

¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.