Frost Log — September 16, 2026

Executive Summary

Tuesday was the dead day before a double, and the house treated it that way — sleeping through the wake-up call, drinking the season's second alcohol drop, and letting Devens direct a zombie movie with Barrett as the lead. Two things happened underneath. Barrett finally delivered a pitch: fifteen minutes in the gym with Devens, offering to be a shield for the icons, warning that Drew will come for them, and asking straight out for the vote. Devens said he loved him, promised nothing, said he'd have to talk to Dee, and told him he expects him to win the Block Buster anyway — which is a way of saying "save yourself." Then, late, Yash and Taylor had the week's first real look at their own Thursday-night board, and the name they debated putting ahead of Drew was Devens.¹ That is the second half of the Culture alliance privately pricing the first half, two days after the first half wrote Yash onto a replacement chair. Drew and Yash, meanwhile, recorded a video on the house phone "squashing their beef" — the argument that never happened, now with a keepsake. Feed coverage also filled in earlier days: Drew's pledge stack is four deep, not three, and Dee told Melody to her face she'd keep her against Barrett but not against Taylor. Barrett got his laundry back.

The Cold Read

Read 1: Culture is a four-person alliance in which each pair has now privately discussed evicting the other pair — and neither pair knows the other has. The icons' half is on the record from Monday: Barrett out, then Drew and Yash, Yash as the replacement. Tuesday at 22:14 the other half sat in the HOH room and worked its own version. The trusted core of that conversation is about Taylor's chair — she argues that her survival produces a "three versus two" split rather than leaving Yash isolated, and they plan messaging around "them three versus you and Dee" — and about Barrett, whom Yash pronounces "unsavable unless he wins." The color around the core, from more than one account but none we'd put weight on alone, has them wanting a four with Dee and Devens, wanting Barrett over Melody if that's the block, and debating whether Devens should go before Drew. Yash's line on the target order, "he's not mad at it," is ambiguous enough that we won't say which way it cut. What we will say is that the shape now matches. Two days ago the only question was whether Culture was a coalition or a shield; the answer on Tuesday's evidence is that it's a shield held from both ends. The icons named it so Yash would have something to hold on a night he can't play. Yash and Taylor named it so the icons would have something to hold on a night Yash can't protect Taylor himself. Nobody in the four has said Drew's name less this week — he's still the one target every member shares — but the second name on each half's list is a member of the other half. The transmission problem is what makes this stable: the only edge that could carry the icons' Yash clause to Yash is Drew, who wants the plan to succeed; and the only edge that could carry Yash's Devens musing to Devens is Taylor, who's been reassured by Devens three times this week and has no reason to burn him. Both secrets are held by people with no incentive to move them. That's why the alliance will probably survive Thursday's first vote intact and why it may not survive the second HOH.

Read 2: Barrett delivered, to the one voter who'd already told him the comfort was deliberate — and Devens answered with a game night. The rehearsal pattern broke Tuesday afternoon. In the gym, 15:27 to 15:39, Barrett offered to be "a shield" for Devens and Dee, said he'd do whatever they wanted if kept, described Yash as "washing his blood money," and warned that Drew may target them next. He then asked Devens for his vote directly. Devens's answer, in order: he loved him, he promised nothing, he'd need to consult Dee, this is "the treacherous part of the game," and he expects Barrett to win the Block Buster anyway. Read the last one as the actual answer. A voter who tells a nominee he expects him to save himself is telling him not to count on the ballot. Then Devens spent the evening with him — GTA6 in November, Stardew Valley, and a starring role in a movie Devens wrote and directed for the house. This is the third day running that the warmest contact Barrett had was with the man whose written plan starts with Barrett leaving, and it's no longer a curiosity; it's a policy. Devens said as much Monday — "we made it more uncomfortable on purpose" — and Tuesday he ran the other side of it, which is to make the goodbye as pleasant as possible. There's a second layer here that Barrett doesn't know about. Feed coverage now has the substance of what Barrett was rehearsing to the walls over the weekend: a double-eviction board of Dee and Devens on the block with Yash as the replacement.¹ It got to the icons the way things get to the icons this week — Drew carried it. The shield Barrett offered Devens on Tuesday is the shield Devens already knows Barrett planned to nominate. Devens didn't say so. He said "treacherous part of the game," which for a man who knows what he knows is a very careful sentence.

Read 3: Drew's pledge stack is four, not three, and he's turned the cover story into a souvenir. The newly dated item that matters most is from nomination day, September 11: Drew to Dee, "I'll be loyal like a dog… I'll be your shield and your sword," and Dee, "I believe you." Add it to the ledger and Drew has promised, in sequence, loyalty to Dee, his ballot to Melody if he won the veto, his ballot against Melody to Yash if needed, and Barrett's favor as a Middleman. At most two of those survive Thursday. The one nobody had priced was Dee's, and it's the one that explains why Dee's file on Drew has been so hard to read: she's had a promise in hand since Friday from the man her plan names first. Drew did something else this week that wasn't on any pledge — he carried a private Melody remark ("I wouldn't even be here if not for her") to Dee and Devens, and got "I would have punched you if you had done that" from Dee for it.¹ Combine that with his relay of Barrett's board and Drew is running an intelligence service for the icons on the two nominees he's supposedly closest to, while sitting on the one piece of intelligence they'd actually want. On Tuesday he and Yash made the deal harder to surface, not easier: a house-phone video of the two of them squashing a beef that was never a beef. A cover story is a claim; a video is an artifact. If Taylor ever asks again — she asked Yash again Tuesday, was told "no," and accepted it — there's now footage to point at. Drew's problem hasn't changed. He's off the block, first on the icons' plan in both branches, and one of five for the second HOH. What changed Tuesday is that Taylor and Yash may have moved Devens ahead of him on their own list,¹ which would make him first on one board and second on another instead of first on both. That's not safety. It's a slightly better draw.

Read 4: The Barrett-versus-Melody branch has a tie in it, and Melody is the only person who's noticed. Walk the votes in the branch where Taylor wins the Block Buster and the block is Barrett and Melody: the electorate is Dee, Devens, Drew and Taylor, with Yash breaking a tie. Dee told Melody on Monday, in as many words, "I still can't keep you against Taylor, but I will keep you against Barrett." Devens's plan is built on Barrett leaving. That's two to evict Barrett. Drew has promised Yash to vote Melody out if needed and has twice told Barrett he's the Block Buster favorite; in this branch those pledges agree, and the one they break is Melody's. That's one to evict Melody. The fourth ballot is Taylor's, and Tuesday night she and Yash were, on the color we can't fully trust, leaning Barrett-stays. If that's real and holds, it's 2–2 and the tiebreak belongs to a sick HOH who'd have to choose, in public, between the icons who just named an alliance with him and the nominee who's been calling his money "blood money" to the walls. Yash's file says he trades from weakness and frames his own choices as forced; a tiebreak is the one decision in the game that can't be framed as forced. We don't think he casts it against the icons. But the branch is no longer 3–1 before anyone sits down, and it's worth noticing who's worried about it. At 22:34 Melody told Drew she doesn't want a tie and that Devens is "too smart." She said it to Drew — the one voter whose ballot is already spoken for against her — and not to Dee or Devens, who are the ballots that decide it. She has the right fear and is telling it to the wrong person. Her campaign toward the actual voters this window was nil; her chair's value keeps moving anyway, this time on a promise Dee made her that Melody may not even know how conditional it is.

Detailed Timeline

(All times PT. Tuesday, September 15 unless noted.)

Newly surfaced this window, dated to earlier days. Feed coverage filled in several conversations from previous days. None changes a hard event; each is dated to when it happened.

• ~September 11 (nomination day) — Drew to Dee: "I'll be loyal like a dog… I'll be your shield and your sword." Dee: "I believe you." Analysis note: a fourth outstanding Drew pledge, older than the other three. See Read 3.
• ~September 14, ~08:12 — Taylor and Melody in the backyard on the Block Buster. Melody: "I NEED to win," and she's conflicted about seeing Barrett leave. Both note neither has won a Block Buster; each assures the other she'd "stay" if the other won. Analysis note: a co-nominee pact of the standard decorative kind — a promise about the branch where the promiser holds nothing.
• ~September 14, morning — The substance of Drew's anti-Yash pitch to Devens: "You almost just beat me in a competition after thirteen hours while he was sick. He's the front runner. If he gets to the end, it's over… especially if he's sitting next to Taylor." Analysis note: the pitch names the pairing, not just the man; Drew is arguing from an F2 matrix to a voter who'd spend the afternoon saying "nobody beats Yash."
• ~September 14 — Dee and Devens debate a Drew–Yash jury vote; Dee says she might vote Drew "because he's done well" and he's her friend, Devens defends Yash's game.¹ Analysis note: both icons are pricing themselves as jurors between two players they plan to nominate. It's the jury-backward logic their plan rests on, and it's also a tell that neither is picturing the chair next to Drew or Yash as their own.
• ~September 14 — Drew relays a private Melody comment ("I wouldn't even be here if not for her") to Dee and Devens; Dee: "I would have punched you if you had done that."¹ Analysis note: Drew carrying nominees' private remarks upstairs. See Read 3.
• ~September 14 — Barrett's double-eviction board, as Drew described it to the icons: Dee and Devens on the block, Yash the replacement.¹ Analysis note: whether Barrett ever delivered his icon pitch was open; what he planned to do with an HOH has now reached the people he's pitching, via Drew. Flag, don't merge, with the earlier account that Barrett told Drew and Yash his icon pitch was insincere.¹
• ~September 14, evening — Dee to Melody: "I still can't keep you against Taylor, but I will keep you against Barrett." Analysis note: the icons' plan at the level of an individual promise. See Read 4.

Tuesday, September 15.

• ~08:00–10:30 — Wake-up call ignored; most of the house sleeps through it. Drew is called to the Diary Room at 09:36. By 10:30 the house is up with the backyard closed for the week and no comp, ceremony or campaign scheduled — the flattest stretch of the week by design.
• 11:23 — Drew is down with the flu.¹ Analysis note: noted only because Yash's illness is already a house topic and a second sick player before an endurance-heavy Thursday would matter.
• 12:37–12:45 — Melody is angry that Dee and Drew are laughing together in the bathroom and heads to the gym.¹ Drew follows and apologizes while she cycles: "I'm sorry for being loud and annoying." Analysis note: an apology for volume, not for the two failed pitches or the ballot.
• 12:56 — Drew tells Devens the veto ceremony "was weird" and mock-reenacts a fake fight with Yash.¹ Analysis note: the cover story, performed again for the same audience.
• 14:22 — Taylor recounts to Dee and Yash her own probe of Yash about the end of the comp: "he was tearing my ass up… I said, 'did he tell a lie?' He was like, 'no.'" Analysis note: second time she's probed her partner on this and accepted the deflection. The question is the right one; the acceptance is the pattern.
• ★ 15:27–15:39 — BARRETT PITCHES DEVENS, gym. Offers to be "a shield" for Devens and Dee, will "do whatever the fuck you want" if kept, calls Yash's money "blood money," warns that Drew may target the icons. Asks directly for the vote. Devens: loves him, promises nothing, needs to consult Dee, "the treacherous part of the game," and expects Barrett to win the Block Buster regardless. Analysis note: the first delivered pitch of Barrett's week, after four rehearsals. See Read 2. Devens's promised consultation with Dee was not captured on feeds this window.
• 16:05 — Barrett and Devens on gaming: GTA6 together in November, Stardew Valley. Analysis note: the human channel running the other direction, from evictor to nominee.
• ★ 17:05–17:17 — BARRETT'S LAUNDRY RETURNED. Called to the storage room; the house gathers; "like his birthday all over again"; immunity shots for everyone but the have-nots. Analysis note: a production grievance that had the target crying on Monday is closed on Tuesday. The emotional variance is gone, and so is the sympathy vector it was generating; whether that's net good for a nominee who needs to win a comp Thursday or net bad for one who needs a vote is genuinely unclear.
• 19:19–19:50 — Alcohol delivery (two wine, six hard seltzer) and the house phone returned. Barrett and Devens, as have-nots, sit it out.
• ★ 19:52 — DREW AND YASH RECORD A VIDEO "SQUASHING THEIR BEEF." Analysis note: the argument cover story becomes a shareable artifact. Nothing has been disclosed to Taylor, Dee or Devens. See Read 3.
• 20:41–21:42 — Devens writes and directs a house zombie movie; Barrett is the breakout star and renames it "ZOM-B-B." Production interrupts once for safety. Analysis note: the third consecutive day the warmest room Barrett is in belongs to Devens.
• ~20:27–21:32 — Drinking-hour color: Dee excited, Drew grumbling about Taylor taking a bottle and then getting called to the Diary Room, Yash needling Taylor about her boyfriend.¹ No game content.
• ★ 22:14–22:23 — YASH AND TAYLOR, HOH ROOM. Trusted core: they discuss Taylor staying on the block; Taylor frames her survival as producing a "three versus two" rather than an isolated Yash; they work messaging around "them three versus you and Dee"; Melody is not seen as a threat; Drew "would be upset"; Yash on Barrett: "All we have is Barrett… he's unsavable unless he wins." Color: they'd prefer Barrett over Melody on a Barrett–Melody block, want a four with Dee and Devens, debate Devens before Drew, Yash: "whoever sits next to Taylor goes the fuck home," and Yash rejects "scapegoat" for Taylor in favor of "pawn of the season."¹ Analysis note: the first look at this pair's own second-HOH board, and the first sign it points inside Culture. See Reads 1 and 4.
• 22:34 — Melody to Drew: she doesn't want a tie, and Devens is "too smart."¹ Analysis note: correct anxiety, delivered to the voter pledged against her rather than the two who'd cause the tie.

Wednesday, September 16

• 05:54 — Window closes. Next scheduled events: Block Buster, first eviction, second HOH and second eviction, Thursday. Format beyond the first eviction still unknown.

Alliance Standings

1. Dee–Devens. Still the heaviest edge and still the only one with a written plan. Tuesday added nothing to the plan and one thing to the file: on Monday the two of them debated whom they'd vote for between Drew and Yash at the end — which is the jury-backward frame doing exactly what it should, and also two people imagining themselves in the jury rather than the chair. Devens told Barrett he'd consult Dee before answering the pitch; if that consultation happened, feeds didn't carry it. Outbound leak to Yash: Drew only, and Drew won't.

2. Yash–Taylor (final two, HOH). Heaviest strategic content of the window. The trusted part of Tuesday's session is a pair planning Taylor's survival and conceding Barrett to the Block Buster; the untrusted part is a pair pricing Devens ahead of Drew. Taylor probed her partner about the comp a second time and accepted "no" a second time; he then made a video with the man he was lying about. The edge remains protective and one class less honest than it looks from inside it.

3. "Culture" (Dee, Devens, Taylor, Yash). A day older and, on Tuesday's evidence, a decoy from both ends: the icons' half has a Yash clause, the Yash half may have a Devens clause.¹ Drew remains the shared target in every version, which is why it holds through Thursday's first vote. Defection cost: low for the icons, moderate for Taylor, and now — if the HOH-room color is right — low for Yash too.

4. Yash–Drew (secret; transactional). Reinforced, not tested. The cover story is now on the house phone. Drew still hasn't told Yash what he pitched Devens; Yash still hasn't told Drew that Taylor and he are weighing Devens before Drew — which, if Drew knew, would be the best news he's had all week.

5. Drew–Devens / Drew–icons. Drew is running an intelligence line upstairs: Barrett's planned board and Melody's private remark both reached the icons through him.¹ What he withholds is the deal. The Dee leg of this now carries a five-day-old pledge — "shield and sword" — that the icons' plan ignores completely.

6. Barrett–Devens. The inversion of the week. Barrett's only delivered pitch went here; the answer was warmth without a vote and an instruction to save himself. Three days of Devens-as-warmest-contact is a pattern, and the plan behind it hasn't moved. Alternative reading, still carried: Devens sincerely wants Barrett to win the Block Buster because it hands him the Taylor–Melody board he'd rather have.

7. Barrett–Drew ("Middlemen"). Drew still calls him the favorite. In a Barrett–Melody block, Drew's ballot and Barrett's interests align; in every other block, Barrett is being cheered by a voter who isn't his.

8. Drew–Melody. An apology for being loud, a shared tie-anxiety at 22:34, and a ballot pledged against her that she hasn't clocked. Melody's only strategy conversation of the window went to this edge.

9. Barrett–Melody. Fractured. Melody's "I NEED to win" on Monday came with conflict about Barrett leaving; Barrett's Tuesday pitch was built on Melody being the worse keep.

Conspicuous non-relationships. Barrett and Yash / Barrett and Taylor — the pitch went to Devens; the two people whose HOH-room conversation might actually have room for him got nothing, and one of them called him unsavable. Melody and the icons — no campaign toward the only two voters who matter in her worst branch; alternative: she's read Dee's Monday promise as sufficient and is saving her breath. Taylor and Drew — still zero; the deal's beneficiary and its buyer haven't spoken, and now there's a video she could be shown instead. Dee and Devens after the Barrett pitch — the promised consultation, unobserved; alternative: it happened off-camera in the two minutes the house wasn't filming a zombie movie.

Player Status

• Yash: Sick, ineligible Thursday, holding the tiebreak, hosting a strategy session in which the name debated before Drew's was an alliance-mate's,¹ and now co-starring in a video that documents an argument that didn't happen.
• Taylor: Fifth nomination, protected by three reassurances and a deal she's now asked about twice and been denied twice; her own Thursday-night board may have Devens on it, which would put the alliance's target inside the alliance.¹
• Dee: Holds a pledge from Drew she never mentioned, gave a promise to Melody the plan honors only in one branch, and spent Monday deciding whom she'd vote for between the two men she intends to nominate.
• Devens: Received the week's only delivered pitch, gave back love, no promise and "you'll win the Block Buster anyway," then cast the man as his movie's lead — the goodbye is now three days long.
• Drew: Four incompatible pledges, an intelligence pipeline to the icons, a cover story with footage, and a name that sits first on one board and possibly second on another.¹
• Melody: Has Dee's word against Barrett and no idea how conditional it is; sees the tie coming and told the wrong voter.
• Barrett: Got his clothes back, delivered a pitch, heard a soft no wrapped in a game night, and is pitching shield duty to a man who's already been told what Barrett planned to do with the key.¹

Prediction Ledger

Evidence grades: A = said privately and backed by behavior; B = repeated behavior or multiple independent conversations; C = a single statement, possibly performed; D = inference from silence, body language, or the edit.

Resolved this window:

• P332 (Barrett makes an explicit pitch to Dee or Devens before Thursday): YES at 55%. Devens, in the gym, 15:27. The rehearsal signature converted late rather than never; the prediction sat a hair over even and that's about where it belonged.
• PENDING: P292 (Angela's speech names Drew) — no content in coverage.

Revised, live through September 17:

• P315 (final block Barrett and Melody → Barrett evicted) 65% → 55%: Dee's explicit promise to Melody and Devens's plan are two sure ballots, but Drew's is pledged the other way and Taylor's may be too;¹ the branch now has a plausible 2–2 in it.
• P316 (first eviction decided by Yash's tiebreak) 35% → 45%: the Barrett–Melody branch is where a tie lives, and Tuesday put Taylor's ballot in play there.
• P329 (Barrett is the first evicted) 42% → 39%, P323 (Melody first) 40% → 43%, P322 (Taylor first) 18%, hold — recomputed against the same Block Buster split (Barrett 40, Taylor 30, Melody 30) with P315 at 55; the three still sum to 100.
• P307 (Drew evicted in the double) 45% → 40%: if Yash and Taylor have Devens ahead of him, he's first on one board instead of two;¹ format still unknown.
• P305 (Taylor wins the second HOH → Dee nominated) 40% → 30%: the HOH-room session talked about a four with Dee, not a board with her on it.
• P319 (Taylor learns of the deal before Thursday) 30% → 20%: she asked again, got "no," accepted it, and there's now a video.
• P331 (Drew tells Dee or Devens about the deal before Thursday) 20% → 15%: the video cuts against it harder than any lie did.
• P313 (the icons' Yash clause reaches Yash or Taylor before Thursday) 30% → 25%: the only carrier still wants the plan to work.
• P325 (Barrett delivers his pitch to Taylor or Yash before Thursday) 45% → 35%: the pitch he did deliver went to Devens; Yash called him unsavable in a room Barrett wasn't in; one day left. Conflicting accounts of what he's already told Yash still don't merge.
• P333 (Drew's anti-Yash pitch reaches Dee before Thursday) 50% → 45%: not observed Tuesday; the icons' Monday jury debate suggests Dee has heard the frame but not necessarily from Drew.
• P304, P308, P314, P320, P321, P324, P326, P327, P328, P330: hold.

New predictions:

The Counter-Read

The lead read says Culture is a shield held from both ends — that Yash and Taylor have started pricing Devens the way the icons priced Yash, and Thursday's first vote may end in a tie because of it. The strongest honest case against it is that we've built a symmetrical structure out of asymmetrical evidence. The icons' Yash clause is on tape, from the two people who'd execute it, in daylight. The Yash–Taylor "Devens before Drew" is late-night color from accounts we couldn't trust alone, wrapped around a trusted core that says something closer to the opposite: Barrett is "unsavable," Taylor's job is to stay put, and the framing they rehearsed — "them three versus you and Dee" — is a message to Devens, positioning Yash and Taylor as his and Dee's side against Barrett, Melody and Drew. On that reading, the HOH room Tuesday wasn't a pair going inside the alliance; it was a pair working out how to sound loyal to it. Yash's behavior fits the second reading better than the first: he apologized to the nominees, reassured Taylor, joined Culture, made a video with Drew that makes Drew look harmless, and has said Drew is the target to anyone who'd listen. A man planning to nominate Devens doesn't spend his HOH week making sure Devens feels held. The tie read leans on the same thin material — Taylor voting for Barrett over the icons' preference would be a Culture member breaking with Culture on its first vote, after being told by both icons she's safe, on behalf of a nominee who calls her partner's money dirty. It would be, for Taylor, the least characteristic ballot of her season. The simpler story is that Thursday's first vote is 3–1 or 4–0 against whichever of Barrett and Melody the icons prefer, Taylor votes with the room, Yash's tiebreak is never needed, Culture survives its first test with a clean sheet, and the only person in the four with a real second-night problem is the one who isn't in it — Drew. The discriminators are Thursday's. If the Barrett–Melody block resolves without a tiebreak, the Taylor-ballot read was wrong and P316 was overpriced. If Taylor wins the second HOH and her nominations are Drew plus a non-member, the Devens clause was talk. And if Yash, in the HOH room Wednesday, spends the last day before the double telling Taylor to trust the icons rather than to watch them, the shield was only ever being held from one end.

Retrospective

Grading the September 15 edition against this window, ex ante branches preserved:

• Read 1 (the icons planned Yash's nomination and then joined an alliance with him; Culture is the shield they say they're done carrying): process-right, outcome pending. Nothing in the window contradicts it and one thing extends it: the other half of Culture had its own inward-pointing conversation Tuesday night, with the same one-directional transmission problem. The read was right to treat Culture as a shield; it under-drew who was holding it. The Yash clause remains renom-grade and conditional; that framing held.
• Read 2 (Drew is using the deal offensively, pointing Devens at Yash while promised never to nominate him): process-right, outcome mixed. The Devens pitch now has a quote and it's sharper than we'd written — it names the Yash–Taylor pairing. But the follow-through we priced at even money, the same pitch to Dee, didn't appear, and Drew's Tuesday energy went into deepening the concealment rather than spending it. A process flaw of a different kind: Drew's pledge to Dee from September 11 was in the record before we started counting his stack, and we counted three. The stack was under-counted for four editions; the pledge was in feed coverage we didn't have, so this is an evidence-availability miss rather than a reasoning one, but the correction is booked.
• Read 3 (the target is Barrett; the icons re-priced Melody without Melody doing anything; Barrett keeps rehearsing and not delivering): process-right, outcome-right, with a late conversion. He delivered Tuesday. The "converts late or never" signature fired on the "late" branch, and the prediction sitting on it (P332) hit at 55. The read's framing of Barrett's grievance — aimed at the Bribe, not the concession — still holds; "blood money" is the Bribe again. The competing accounts of his double game remain unmerged: Drew's relay of Barrett's board to the icons¹ makes the icon-shield pitch look like the insincere half, which is consistent with the account we flagged Monday and still not confirmed by Barrett's own mouth.
• Read 4 (Taylor is the best-protected nominee, guarded by three reassurances and a fourth she doesn't know about): process-right, outcome-right so far. She probed and accepted a denial a second time, which is the file behaving as written. The newly dated Dee-to-Melody line — "can't keep you against Taylor" — is the Taylor–Melody branch stated as a promise rather than inferred from a plan, and it moves P320's grade up in substance even though the number was already at ceiling.
• Counter-read discriminators (Dee or Devens win the second HOH and nominate Drew plus a non-Yash with no move toward Yash → the clause was decoration; Drew's pitch to Dee never happens or gets reported upstairs → we overpriced his leverage; Yash learns the plan and the four still eat together → the shield was Yash's own read): none testable yet; the second is trending toward firing — no Dee pitch observed with one day left.
• Predictions: P332 YES at 55 — a hit that sat close enough to even that it claims little. Revisions to P305, P307, P313, P315, P316, P319, P323, P325, P329, P331 and P333 recorded in the ledger with reasons. The aggregate triple was re-summed against the unchanged comp split and still lands at 100.
• Hard-record hygiene: no comp, nomination, veto, eviction or twist occurred in the window; the hard record carries forward unchanged. Barrett's laundry return is a production event with morale effect only and is dated September 15, 17:05–17:17. No feed outage crossed the reporting threshold. No broadcast aired in the window; nothing is dated to airtime. A recap line reconfirming the nominees is not new and is not booked. The newly surfaced conversations are dated to September 11 and September 14 respectively and have been folded into those days, not this one.

Coverage: September 15, 05:54 PT → September 16, 05:54 PT. Regime call: WEEK 10 UNDER YASH — Barrett, Melody and Taylor go into Thursday's Block Buster as the three nominees; the Yash–Drew concession deal holds under an "argument" cover story now recorded on the house phone and still unknown to Taylor and the icons; Dee and Devens's written double-eviction plan names Drew first in every branch and Yash as a replacement if Barrett leaves; Yash and Taylor have had their first look at their own second board and may have Devens ahead of Drew on it; Barrett has delivered one pitch, to Devens, and received warmth without a vote; the icons' target remains Barrett with Taylor protected by three reassurances plus the deal; double eviction September 17 with a four-voter first electorate in every branch, Yash's tiebreak live throughout and newly plausible in the Barrett–Melody branch, and a second HOH Yash cannot play; format beyond the first eviction unknown. Confidence ceilings: nomination calls in a forced-board structure up to 85%, sub-branch nomination and vote calls at 75%, flip calls capped at 60%, comp outcomes priced at base rates, jury-class forecasts argued only from what jurors actually witnessed. Evidence grades: A = said privately and backed by behavior; B = repeated behavior or multiple independent conversations; C = a single statement, possibly performed; D = inference from silence, body language, or the edit. ¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.