Frost Log Stockwatch — September 14, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers post hours ahead of tonight's live Stockwatch, so they can be held against the room's in real time. They commit with the week's last lever pulled: at midday's veto ceremony Drew took himself off, Yash named Taylor for her fifth nomination, and Thursday's Block Buster is Barrett, Melody and Taylor — with a second HOH the same night that Yash can't play and a secret deal that only he and Drew know exists. Scores are win equity, seat odds times jury odds, not weekly safety; this is a week where the safest chair on the board and the most exposed one belong to the same two people, depending which night you mean.

Versus the market

Last week we were low on Yash by four (5 against the RHAP average of 9), low on Barrett by two (5 against 7), and a point high on Angela, Dee and Melody. The week split the ticket. On Barrett the events were ours: the 7 priced an HOH that produced a 3–2 flip against its author, a third juror who walked out nominated by him, and a chair this week with both icons' names on him. On Angela the market's 3 was right and our 4 was the sympathy premium we keep paying — she left. On Melody our 6 was the miss the season-to-date line flags: safest chair on Friday, cheapest eviction by Monday, no action of hers in between. Yash is the honest split. He won the HOH the 9 was pricing, then stood fourteen hours and traded the veto to his target for two promises — the market's number bought the comps and ours bought the ceiling, and Devens saying today that "nobody wins against Yash with this jury" says the room is closer to right than we've been. Over 115 scored rows we run 0.44 low with a standing -1.3 on Yash; tonight's number moves toward the market without meeting it, for reasons in his entry.

Barrett — 3

Down two, into the chair he spent Friday saying was bullshit. The seat math is the debit: he's the first-eviction target in the branches where Taylor or Melody wins the Block Buster, and today both icons converted a family video into a verdict — Devens read the throat-cut gesture as his family telling him to keep coming after them, and said "we can't keep Barrett." The campaign is a double game rehearsed to a camera and, per Drew, an ask already made for his vote; the signature is that his stated intent converts late, and the rehearsal is the only delivery logged. His jury odds were already the worst on the board — Lala nominated by him, Angela evicted under him, Dee on record that she doesn't respect the balance beam he threw¹ — and the Middlemen warmth with Drew is one ballot, not an electorate.

Dee — 5

Up one on getting her seat back and the table with it. Protected through the first vote, eligible for the second HOH, and by Monday afternoon talking with Devens about "no more shields" and a two-comp-threats night — Barrett out first, then Drew and Yash on her board with Yash as the replacement if Barrett is gone. That board has now included Yash, excluded him on the cameras Saturday,¹ and included him again inside three days, so it's priced as weather until she wins the key. The Game 2 file is where she's strongest and most discounted at once: the broadcast credits her as the flip's architect, which is the version jurors' families hear, while Lala and Angela sit in the room knowing the million and Barrett — likely juror four or five — rates Devens's resume above hers out loud.

Devens — 5

Up two, the board's biggest rise, on a resume other people are now reciting for him. Barrett told Drew in the small hours Monday that Devens has "way more than Dee" — the Rome eviction, a Diamond Veto not spent on himself, the ballot that kept Dee — and Angela left with a blessing. Two Block Buster wins under pressure post to the comp column without posting to the threat ledger the way Yash's do. The debit is his own arithmetic: he told Dee today that Yash has his vote in any jury he sits in and that his "heart's with Drew" — a player computing his F2 matrix and finding himself the wrong opponent for the front-runner, which is exactly the information he needs and exactly why his board has Yash on it.

Drew — 4

Up one; the ledger has to count what the house believes, and the house believes he beat the HOH straight up after fourteen hours. Off the block, a voter Thursday, one-in-five for the key Yash can't play, and by late morning working Devens on the double — Yash "the type of dude that can keep winning, like Jag," would smoke them in a final three.¹ The stack against him is the same as Friday's: he's on the Dee/Devens board in both of their branches and on Taylor's, and he holds three ballot pledges that can't all be honored — Melody's, Yash's, and now Barrett's ask on top of Taylor's, which he told Melody about to her face. Jury: Barrett warm, Melody hostile after two refusals, Devens's heart if not his vote. A concession he can't disclose without spending Yash's trust is a comp win he can't fully cash.

Melody — 3

Down three, the board's fall, and the cleanest demonstration this season that stability of position isn't an actor. Nothing she did moved her from safest chair to cheapest eviction; a veto result did. Two pitches to Drew failed, the second one two-channel and expensive — she admitted rooting against him, dangled a secret she still hasn't told, and got told in return that Barrett and Taylor had already asked. The keep signal is real but not hers: Dee and Devens said today they'd rather carry Taylor and Melody to five than either comp threat, and in the Barrett-versus-Melody branch that's her survival. The 3 prices her as a passenger with a jury thesis of zero owned evictions and three losing keeps — a goat's row in the matrix, worth something only to whoever sits beside her.

Taylor — 4

Holds, with the components swapped. On the block for a fifth time, this time by her own final two, and by mid-afternoon Dee, Yash and Devens had each visited the pod to tell her she's safe no matter what — three of four ballots pointed her way before she'd gotten out of bed, and the fourth, Drew's, bought for her at hour fourteen without her knowledge. That's a chair, not a risk; her aggregate first-night exposure is about one in eight. The price is what the reassurance means: Dee and Devens' endgame talk today went through everyone's name as a target except hers, because she's the one they intend to carry. Seat odds up, jury odds flat — the author role stays juror-invisible, and Devens's "she does everything" is a compliment from a man who just said his vote goes to Yash.

Yash — 6

Up one toward the market, and it stops short for reasons that are structural, not stubborn. The jury column is now the strongest on the board by the only evidence that counts — a fellow houseguest computing it against himself: Devens said nobody beats Yash with this jury and that Yash has his vote; Dee said she "knows he can beat them" and wants to show him loyalty anyway. That's Game 2 equity a rookie rarely gets said aloud about him. The seat column is why this isn't an 8: he's ineligible for the one HOH that decides the double's second half, the pair he's leaning on has his name on their board in the branch where Barrett leaves, Drew is lobbying Devens against him under cover of a deal Drew won't admit exists,¹ and the house-truth is that he lost the veto to his target. He also lied to Melody and deflected Taylor about the concession — a sin no juror can see unless one of two people tells them, and Melody was already asking this morning whether he cut a deal.¹

Biggest mover: Melody, 6 → 3 — the safest chair on Friday's board became the cheapest eviction on Monday's, and the only thing she did in between was campaign for it.

¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.