Frost Log — September 9, 2026

Executive Summary

Nothing on the board moved: Angela, Dee and Devens stay on the block for Thursday's Block Buster and live vote. The room around it moved plenty. Dee ran the most complete campaign of the season — rehearsed lines for Yash, sincerity for Taylor, a hug for Drew with a middle finger behind his back — and it worked on the channel campaigns actually run on: Yash's answer was "if you stay, let's ride," and by evening the whisper in the house was to send Angela home instead of either Survivor player. Barrett heard it and told the Diary Room "we are not doing that" — an HOH who, with five voters and no tie possible, does not have a ballot. Yash told Taylor the quiet part: he does not want to win the next HOH, because winning clears the Bribe that makes him the one rookie no icon can touch, and he'd rather an icon remove Drew first. Dee, separately, told Taylor she wouldn't put Yash up anyway. Drew named Yash as his winner pick in the DR, Barrett wondered aloud whether anyone beats him at the end, and Devens told Yash to his face he wins if he gets there. Three people said it; nobody drew his name. Barrett's birthday landed at midnight; the first person to say happy birthday was Drew.

The Cold Read

Read 1: The eviction target is drifting to Angela, and the man who set the block found out he has no say in it. For five days the settled shape of this week was Devens first, Dee second, Angela the icon nobody wanted to spend a vote on. Tuesday the order inverted underneath Barrett. Devens is campaigning for Angela to go over him — a solo player's play, consistent with everything he's done since the veto draw — and independently Yash and Taylor talked through booting Angela over Dee, while Melody worked Drew toward the same idea in the have-not room. Barrett's DR reaction at 01:42 is the whole picture in one sentence: "What the hell are they talking about, saving Angela — we are not doing that st." We. Count the electorate. Drew, Melody, Taylor, Yash and whichever icon wins the Block Buster: five ballots, an odd number, no tie, and the HOH's vote exists only for a tie. Barrett's power in Week 9 ended at Monday's veto ceremony; from that moment he has been a spectator with a nicer bedroom, and the house that spent Sunday agreeing with him about Devens is now conducting its Thursday business without him. Why Angela? Not the jury logic — the rookies are not pricing her as the goat they'd want to sit beside. Three ordinary reasons. Dee's campaign landed: "let's ride" is what Yash says to a person he's decided to keep, and Dee told Taylor her board excludes him, which for Yash and Taylor is the only board attribute that matters. Devens is pushing it from inside the block, and a nominee's vote is real if he wins the save. And Angela spent her own campaign day on the wrong people: a guilt-laced pitch to Barrett, who cannot vote, and a jab at Melody's comp record in a group conversation Angela herself started¹ — Melody votes. Two disciplines before we move the number. Whispers are not whips; this season has twice produced a Tuesday consensus that never became a Thursday count. And the drift only exists in two of three branches: if Angela wins the Block Buster, the week returns to Dee versus Devens and this paragraph is moot. We take Angela's survival from three-in-four to a coin flip, and no further.

Read 2: Yash's threat has crossed into speech and stopped there, and he knows exactly which wall is holding it. Tuesday three different players priced Yash as the endgame. Barrett at the cameras: can anyone beat him in a final two? Drew in the DR: Yash is his winner pick. Devens to Yash and Taylor together: "Yash has a great chance to win the show if he gets to finals." That is a threat moving from perceived to speakable in one day, from three separate directions. Now count the boards. Angela's says Barrett and Drew. Dee's, per her own words to Taylor, pointedly leaves Yash off — "joke's on him, I'm not gonna put Josh up."¹ Devens's says Barrett. Taylor is his partner. Melody is his pawn. Barrett can't play. Drew is the one player who wants Yash up — Dee says so — and Drew is on four of seven boards himself. A player three people call the favorite is on zero nomination boards, and the reason is a $5,000 coin. Yash said so to Taylor: he'd nominate Drew and Melody in a double eviction, but he does not want the regular HOH now, because "the second I win, the bribe is cleared, and the icons will want me out." His preferred sequence is an icon HOH that takes out Drew, and then his own HOH after that, once he can aim at an icon. That is the correct calculus and it's more correct than he said. Under the Block Buster format an HOH nominates three, and the Bribe forbids him all three icons, so a Yash HOH this week would be Drew plus two of Barrett, Melody and Taylor — three-quarters of the "four" he keeps reassuring Barrett about. The board he's been drawing has a hidden third chair, and every candidate for it is a friend. He wants a shield that fires only once, and he wants someone else to fire it. Melody, on Sunday, wanted Yash to throw the HOH to protect Drew. She's about to get her wish for the opposite reason.

Read 3: Dee is running the two-channel campaign this house has never seen, and Barrett is reading it as bitterness because he's the only one it isn't aimed at. Look at the modulation. To Yash, a rehearsed rapid-fire Q&A and, later, a deal: "I don't want you to think I'm f***ing bitter either." To Taylor, sincerity, because Taylor is a swing vote now and knows it. To Drew, a hug and a middle finger behind his back — then, when he came to the crying nominee with "I'm not coming for you" and "I'm at the bottom of my own side," she thanked him, said she believed him, and told the camera she'd clocked it as damage control. To Angela, a game-history quiz in M&Ms, a "RIP" spelled in the same M&Ms, and a refusal when Angela suggested spelling "WUSS" outside Barrett's door: "that's like bullying, dude." Tears at 15:44, real ones by the sound of it — "never wanted anything more than this." Every one of those is the right register for that audience, and the man being told to his face he's a wimp on Monday is the man being told he's believed on Tuesday. Then the discipline underneath it: when Devens pushed to send Angela home instead of him, Dee declined to co-campaign. She let the room drift toward Angela without pushing her partner off the cliff herself. The one player she has made no effort to soften is Barrett — "make him regret his decision for the rest of his life" still stands, and a message she left him overnight is unread by us. That's not a mistake. Barrett has no vote, and a Dee who survives Thursday wants him afraid, not persuaded; a Dee who leaves Thursday wants juror three's grievance to be clean. The cost she was carrying Monday — Melody's "Dee is the bigger threat than Drew" — evaporated Tuesday when Melody started pitching Drew on Angela. Whether that's the campaign working or Melody's weather, we can't distinguish yet.

Read 4: Barrett has pledged a final two to a couple, and he heard the man who's cutting them out say so. Yash went upstairs and told him, in as many words: "For me, it's really the four of us — me, Taylor, you, and Melody. Not Drew."¹ Barrett's response, moments after Drew and Melody left his room at half past one in the morning: "They are my final 2." A final two of two people is a final three, and the man offering it to him has just been told by his own pact's engine that one of the two is the next target. He didn't argue with Yash, and the coverage shows no sign he carried the sentence to Drew — the same containment he's kept on Melody's Lala ballot for six days, now applied to a warning about Drew. Meanwhile his self-audit continues in the DR with a final-order forecast — Devens, Angela, Dee, Melody, "possibly Yash" — and then a final four of Yash, Melody, Drew and himself in which he finishes last. He also gave the room a genuine jury insight and pointed it at the wrong juror: he'll be angry if there's no double eviction, because "Lala and Devens will be alone together in jury." He's right that the jury room is a room where stories are agreed on. He's wrong about which story. Devens has voiced no grievance toward him all week and told Drew on Monday he's "been there for him since the beginning"; the juror who'd walk in carrying a program against Barrett is Dee. And note what he didn't say: "Lala and Devens alone" is a two-person jury in his head, which is either loose speech or a house understanding that Haley isn't there. We can't tell from the feeds.

Detailed Timeline

(All times PT, September 8 unless noted)

• ~10:30–11:01 — Melody to Drew and then to the camera: "Last night made me realize I've been super f***ing mean, but whatever, all's fair in love, war, and Big Brother." The Monday blowup has become a perception problem to her, not a trust problem. Analysis note: she says this to the person she called a wimp, and the sentence contains no retraction.
• 11:12 — Drew states his belief that this week is a double eviction and expects a day's break before the next HOH. A houseguest's guess; production has confirmed nothing, and this remains the house's most-repeated unconfirmed belief.
• ~11:47–12:27 — Barrett and Melody bond over past seasons; Angela, in an "All-Star return" conversation she started, needles Melody about her lack of comp wins.¹ Rumor-watch: unconfirmed social-media chatter has Dee and Barrett speaking for the first time in days ("the drought is over"), and separately has Angela confronting Drew and Melody about what she saw "under the water" in the pool; no trusted source corroborates either.
• 12:44 — Melody to Taylor: "You've been on the block four times?!" Taylor nods. Four is correct — Weeks 1, 4, 7 and 8 — and it's the first time a rookie has said Taylor's survival resume out loud to her face.
• 13:57–14:01 — Barrett to the cameras: can anyone beat Yash in a final two? Of himself: "If I can get to the end, I'd like to think I could beat everybody." Analysis note: the first line is the right question and the second is the reason he won't act on it.
• 13:58 — The Jenga tower falls at the times table; cupcakes follow. Recreational, not a comp.
• 14:47 — Dee to Yash, rehearsed: a rapid-fire Q&A pitch. Yash: "If you stay, let's ride."
• ~15:00 onward (block, untimed within it) — Angela to Barrett: a campaign pitch described as "happy joy voice combined with masterful but subtle guilt-laying," in which she rats out Drew. The recipient cannot vote this week.
• 15:08 — Devens to Yash and Taylor together: "Yash has a great chance to win the show if he gets to finals." Analysis note: campaign flattery, but the sentence lands in the ear of the woman who has offered to take second to him.
• 15:17 — Dee to Drew: pitches him, hugs him, flips him off behind his back mid-hug. "The odds are stacked against me but I'm still here."
• (untimed, campaign block) — Devens to Drew: a pitch that includes telling Drew about the cease-fire pact — an alliance Drew is in — plus his vote and a future promise to Dee if he ends up against Angela. Devens then campaigns for Angela to go home over him; Dee declines to co-campaign on that push. Dee to Taylor: a sincerity-forward pitch. Analysis note: Devens telling a pact member the pact exists tells Drew the pact leaks; it doesn't tell him from where.
• 15:44 — Dee, emotional: she's never wanted anything more than this; she wants to win "with all the odds stacked against her."
• ~16:08–16:18 — Devens joins Dee and Angela's M&M game-history quiz in the have-not room. The first time all three icons have been observed together this week, and it was a study session, not a strategy one.
• (afternoon, untimed) — Whispers begin across the house to send Angela home rather than Dee or Devens. Dee cuts a deal with Yash: "I don't want you to think I'm f***ing bitter either." Dee thanks Drew and says she believes him, then tells the camera she clocked his approach as damage control. Drew visits a crying Dee, hugs her, "I'm not coming for you"; says the icons have his sympathy vote and he's "at the bottom of my own side" and "doesn't trust anybody in it."
• (untimed, evening) — The Angela movement continues: Melody works Drew on it in the have-not room; Taylor and Yash discuss booting Angela over Dee. Yash to Taylor: his ideal is an icon winning HOH10 to take out Drew, then his own HOH the week after to hit an icon; he'd nominate Drew and Melody in a double eviction but doesn't want to win the regular HOH yet — "the second I win, the bribe is cleared, and the icons will want me out." Of Barrett: "he's a good guy." Yash and Taylor reaffirm they'd rather Dee stay than Devens. Taylor repeats to Yash and Barrett that Drew and Melody kissed, saying she overheard them whispering about it.¹ Yash to Barrett upstairs: "For me, it's really the four of us — me, Taylor, you, and Melody. Not Drew."¹
• (untimed) — Dee to Taylor: Drew wants Yash nominated, "but joke's on him, I'm not gonna put Josh up."¹ Taylor goes straight to Yash and urges him to win the next HOH. Analysis note: Taylor is now relaying icon intel to Yash within minutes, and the intel cuts against his own plan to not win.
• (untimed) — Drew and Barrett agree they need to "comp out" from here; Drew asks whether Barrett had a crush on Mallory ("I thought that was painfully obvious"). Drew and Melody flirt at length in the hot tub. Drew, to the DR: he trusts no one and no one trusts him; the Bribe "saves all three icons"; his winner pick is Yash.
• ~19:45 — Dee and Angela in the bathroom on pranking Barrett: borrow Mallory's scrunchie; Angela suggests spelling "WUSS" outside his door. Dee: "That's like bullying, dude."
• 19:48–19:49 — Angela to Dee: Melody and Drew were "softly touching" in the pool, playing footsie, Drew "hot and bothered." Dee: they're cute. Angela wants to see them "macking out."
• 20:16 / 20:20 — Dee spells "RIP" in M&Ms in the have-not room. Drew: "Who died?"
• 01:21–01:29 (Sept 9) — Drew thanks Barrett for getting them to "top 7"; Barrett: "top 8"; Melody: she'll bring them to "top 6." Barrett calls the Year 1000 tournament "so stupid," then "I guess it worked out, we are in jury and Haley gone." Melody recalls Angela crying during it; Drew: Angela is smart but doesn't handle stress; Barrett: Angela thinks she's going home regardless. Melody apologizes for being "b*tchy"; Drew likes it; Barrett: she makes him "feel special"; Melody: they're both special to her. Barrett: he'll be mad if it isn't a double-eviction week, because if Devens leaves without one, "Lala and Devens will be alone together in jury."
• 01:38 — Drew and Melody leave; Barrett to the cameras: "They are my final 2." Drew wishes Barrett happy birthday — the first to do so, per Melody. Birthday: September 9.
• 01:42–01:44 — Barrett, DR: "What the hell are they talking about, saving Angela — we are not doing that s**t." Predicts the order out: Devens, Angela, Dee, Melody, "possibly Yash"; of the remaining four, "Yash, Melody, Drew, me" — himself last.
• 01:51 / 03:50 — Melody is scared to go into the have-not room and remove Dee's "RIP"; Drew makes the sign of the cross over her. At 03:50 she says she won't sleep on the have-not bed while it still says it.
• 04:48 (Sept 9) — Dee leaves a message for Barrett; content not reported. Houseguests are described as contemplating a change to the eviction plan, consistent with the afternoon's Angela drift.

Backfill, dated September 7 (not new events). Yash told Devens before the ceremony he wasn't pushing to use the veto for fear the replacement would be Taylor¹ — a partial explanation for a hold we'd priced at 85%. The nominees' ceremony speeches alternated between praising Barrett and tearing into him; the rookies had planned oven-mitt puppets to mock the vets, Drew backed out ("it's too mean"), and Melody's exact line was "he has no backbone." Barrett's post-party "royally f***ed" cam talk is re-reported; nothing new in it.

Alliance Standings

1. Yash–Taylor (final two). Still the heaviest strategic edge and getting more explicit: Yash's HOH-avoidance rationale, the icon-then-me sequencing, the double-eviction board (Drew and Melody), the Dee-over-Devens lean. Leak lines: Taylor is now a same-hour relay — Dee's "not gonna put Josh up" reached Yash within the conversation cycle, and Taylor's reflex was to push him to win a comp he's just said he'd rather not. That's the first tension inside the pair: her fear and his patience want different Thursdays. Devens's "great chance to win" was said to both of them; whether Taylor reprices her own second-place offer is the thing to watch.

2. Angela–Dee. Stress-tested and held: with the room drifting to Angela and Devens pushing it, Dee declined to campaign against her partner. The pair still shares the vengeance program, the gossip channel (pool footsie), and the board (Barrett and Drew). What's asymmetric is effectiveness — Dee's campaign moved the room, Angela's campaign went to a non-voter and a jab at a voter.¹

3. The cease-fire pact (Barrett, Melody, Taylor, Drew, Yash) — as a Thursday bloc. Intact in headcount, unsettled in target: Sunday's Devens lean has become a live Angela option that three members are discussing and the HOH opposes without a vote. Yash restated "the four" to Barrett with Drew excluded; Barrett answered with a final two that includes Drew. The bloc will vote together Thursday; it no longer agrees on whom.

4. Drew–Melody. Repaired again — "all's fair," hot tub, the sign of the cross over the RIP bed. Melody's "top 6" and "you're both special" are the warmest she's been on record; Drew's "at the bottom of my own side" to Dee is the most isolated he's been on record, and he said it while she was upstairs with Barrett. Both true at once.

5. Barrett–Drew–Melody. Barrett's stated final two, spoken to the cameras after they left his room. The one strategy conversation observed (Drew–Barrett "comp out") is a plan to win comps. Barrett holds two things he hasn't passed to Drew: Melody's Lala ballot (day six) and Yash's "not Drew."

6. Icons ↔ Yash/Taylor. Now a working pipe rather than a pitch: "let's ride," the "not bitter" deal, Dee's board disclosed to Taylor, Devens's flattery. Yash is still using it as a shield, but Tuesday the shield started voting the way he leans.

7. Devens — solo. Campaigns for himself, against Angela, and informs a pact member that the pact exists. Joined the icon quiz; still party to none of their strategy.

Conspicuous non-relationships: Barrett and any icon on strategy, day six — the one icon contact was Angela's pitch to a man without a ballot, and Dee's overnight message is unread; Barrett and Drew on the receipt Drew holds, day nine, and now on Yash's exclusion of Drew; Angela and Melody on anything but a jab; Drew and the plan being made about him — he has the sensation and not the sentence.

Player Status

• Barrett: An HOH who found out on the sixth night of his reign that the eviction is being decided by five people who aren't him; pledged final two to a pair, was told by Yash that one of them is next, and passed neither the warning nor the ballot along.
• Drew: The only houseguest whose reads are all correct — Yash wins, Yash and Taylor are the danger, his side leaks — and the only one with nothing to do about any of them; on four boards, sympathy-voting with the icons while sitting in the bloc, and back in the hot tub with the ally who won't confirm what he sees.
• Melody: Apologized for the blowup without retracting it, told both men they're special, and pitched Drew on saving the woman she called the bigger threat two days ago; on Yash's double-eviction board and in the hidden third chair of everyone else's.
• Yash: Named the favorite by three players and drawn by none; told his partner he'd rather not win the next HOH, and told the truth about why.
• Taylor: The relay is running in one direction — icons to Yash, same hour — and her first instinct on hearing Drew wants Yash up was to push Yash toward the comp he wants to skip; she's been on the block four times and someone finally said so.
• Devens: Campaigning alone for Angela to go instead of him, hyping Yash to Yash, and telling Drew about Drew's own alliance; his escape hatch is the Block Buster, where he finished second last week.
• Dee: The best campaign day anyone's had this season — modulated by audience, disciplined toward Angela, hostile only to the man who can't vote — and the target still drifted away from her.
• Angela: Spent the day the room turned toward her pitching the HOH and needling a voter;¹ the icon nobody wanted to evict is now the one three rookies are discussing, and her exit would send Drew's most hostile juror to the jury house early.

Prediction Ledger

Evidence grades: A = said privately and backed by behavior; B = repeated behavior or multiple independent conversations; C = a single statement, possibly performed; D = inference from silence, body language, or the edit.

Resolved this window: none. No hard events; the block is locked until Thursday.

Held and repriced:

• P266 (an icon is evicted Thursday): 90%, grade B, unchanged.
• P267 (Melody's true W8 ballot reaches an icon before the eviction): trimmed 25% → 20%. Day six, nothing. Angela's gossip about Melody is about the pool, not the vote.
• P268 (Drew relays or acts on the Barrett receipt during Barrett's HOH week): 10%, grade B, unchanged. "Comp out" together is the opposite plan.
• P272 (the icons' Barrett-next plan reaches Barrett before the eviction): 40%, grade C, held. Yash knows the plan and said "he's a good guy" about Barrett to Taylor, not to Barrett; Angela pitched Barrett and had every reason not to draw him her board.
• P273 (if the final block is Dee and Devens, Devens is evicted): raised 65% → 70%, grade B. Yash and Taylor reaffirmed Dee over Devens; Melody has left the "Dee is the bigger threat" position; Barrett's preference for Devens out now runs only through Drew and Melody, but it does run there. Monday's five-point trim was on a rationale the room has since abandoned.
• P276 (if Angela is on the final block, she survives): trimmed 75% → 50%, grade C. The drift is a day old and spoken by Devens, Yash, Taylor and Melody; against it, whispers have failed to become a count twice this season and Barrett's opposition still reaches two voters. Decomposed in P288 and P289.
• P277 (Drew's two-sided dealing is reported to Barrett or Melody before the eviction): raised 45% → 60%, grade C, at the flip ceiling. Angela's pitch to Barrett is reported to have ratted Drew out; if her words included his icon-side dealing, this has already happened. The coverage records the manner, not the content, so it stays open.
• P279 (Barrett or Melody privately names Drew as the pact's next target before the eviction): trimmed 40% → 30%, grade C. Barrett heard the target named and answered with a final two.
• P280 (if Taylor or Yash wins HOH10, Drew is among the nominees): 75%, grade B, held at the sub-branch ceiling. Yash's own reasons for not wanting the HOH assume Drew is the board.
• P281 (if Dee or Angela wins HOH10, Drew and Barrett are both nominated): 75%, grade B, held at the ceiling. Dee's "not gonna put Josh up" is the same board by subtraction.¹
• P282 (Melody reports Drew's "pick me over Barrett" pressure to Barrett before the eviction): trimmed 40% → 30%, grade C. She apologized to both of them in the same room instead.
• P283 (if Dee is evicted Thursday, her exit speech names Barrett or Drew): 65%, grade C, jury class, held. "Don't think I'm bitter" went to a voter; the Barrett line has not been withdrawn.
• P284 (if Melody wins HOH10, Drew is not among her nominees): 70%, grade B, held. "Top 6" and the hot tub for; "all's fair" against.
• P285 (if Devens wins HOH10, Barrett is among his nominees): 60%, grade C, held. No new Barrett-directed content from Devens either way.
• P286 (Drew learns before HOH10 is decided that Yash and Taylor intend to nominate him): raised 40% → 45%, grade C. Devens told him the pact leaks; he told Dee he trusts nobody on his side; Barrett now holds the sentence itself. Against it: the only person who talks to him at night still says don't be paranoid.
• P287 (if Devens is evicted Thursday, his exit speech does not name Barrett or Drew): 60%, grade C, held.

New predictions:

The Counter-Read

The lead read says the eviction target has drifted to Angela and the HOH has lost control of his own week. The strongest honest case against is that Tuesday was a campaign day doing what campaign days do, and that we are pricing the sound of a room over the shape of a vote. Audit it. "Boot Angela" is being said by a nominee who benefits from it, by two players who never lead on Thursday but follow whoever does, and by a woman who has changed her mind about the bigger threat every day this week. The one player with a settled preference — Barrett — can't vote, but he has a bedroom Drew and Melody sit in until one in the morning, and those are two of the four rookie ballots. The pact has voted as a bloc in every contested week since it formed, and its bloc lean has been Devens for a week; a lean that old has never been overturned by a Tuesday in this house. And the entire drift lives in two of three Block Buster branches — if Angela wins the save, which she has done once before, the week reverts to Dee versus Devens and every sentence about Angela evaporates. On this reading, Barrett's "we are not doing that" isn't a spectator shouting at a screen; it's the leader of a bloc that still votes together stating the bloc's position, and Thursday will look exactly like Sunday said it would. The discriminator is the vote itself, and one thing before it: whether Barrett spends Wednesday in the room with Drew and Melody talking about Angela, or whether the Angela conversation keeps happening in rooms he isn't in. If it's the former, the bloc holds and the read was noise. If the latter, the HOH really has become a guest at his own eviction.

Retrospective

Grading the September 8 edition against this window, ex ante branches preserved:

• Read 1 (the pact ended as a coalition; the vote bloc survives it): process-right, half the outcome pending. Yash restated "the four, not Drew" to Barrett, and gave Taylor a sequencing plan that only makes sense if Drew is the next board — the coalition half held. The bloc half is weaker than we wrote it: we said the five ballots would hold on Thursday and implied the target would too. The ballots may still hold; the target moved. A bloc that agrees to vote together but not on whom is a thinner thing than we described.
• Read 2 (Barrett grades his own week as a loss; the arithmetic is correct): process-right, incomplete. The self-grading continued into a DR forecast with himself last. What we never priced across six editions of his reign is the structural fact that decided Tuesday: an HOH with an odd electorate has no ballot. We tracked his target, his loosening, his regret — and not that his opinion on the eviction stopped mattering on Monday at noon.
• Read 3 (Melody's quiet position is over): process-right, outcome-right. Angela's pool gossip to Dee and her comp-record jab¹ are the icons naming her; Yash's double-eviction board names her; "top 6" and "you're both special" are the warmest she's been with Barrett and Drew on record, in the same day she apologized for being mean without taking anything back.
• Read 4 (Dee's campaign is a jury speech aimed at Barrett; it moves no ballots): process-wrong, outcome-wrong. We were right that Barrett is the audience for her hostility and right that she's pre-loading juror three. We were wrong about the mechanism and the effect. Tuesday's campaign was aimed squarely at voters, modulated per voter, and it produced "let's ride" and a room drifting toward Angela. We wrote "the campaign moves no ballots" on the day it started moving them, and we trimmed her survival odds (P273) on a rationale — her threats as a reason to send her — that the room dropped within twenty-four hours. The theory we write against says the human channel wins votes; we scored her on the game channel and docked her for it. That's the miss.
• Predictions: none resolved. The two we moved most on Monday (P273 down, P283 up) split: P273 comes back today on the room's actual behavior; P283 holds. P277 is the near-hit: we raised it to 45% and the event may already have occurred in Angela's pitch to Barrett, unrecorded in detail.
• Hard-record hygiene: no new game events; the record is unchanged. Barrett's birthday, an open item since last week, resolves to September 9 from the overnight well-wishing. The "Drew–Dee damage control" item we'd carried thin is now solid from Dee's own camera read. Taylor's nomination count is four (Weeks 1, 4, 7, 8), and our standing note had it at five; corrected. Barrett's "Lala and Devens alone in jury" is the first in-house line to imply a jury without Haley in it — a hint, not a fact, and the feeds can't settle it.

Coverage: September 8, 05:55 PT → September 9, 06:30 PT. Regime call: WEEK 9 UNDER BARRETT — veto held Monday, final block Angela/Dee/Devens for Thursday's Block Buster and live vote (five voters including the Block Buster winner, no tie possible, HOH has no ballot); the rookie cease-fire pact standing as a voting bloc with a drifting target, a Yash–Taylor final two inside it, and an HOH-avoidance plan spoken by the player the Bribe protects; a double eviction anticipated by the house and unconfirmed by production. Confidence ceilings: flip calls capped at 60% in this structure, sub-branch nomination and vote calls at 75%, comp outcomes priced at base rates, jury-class forecasts argued only from what jurors actually witnessed. Evidence grades: A = said privately and backed by behavior; B = repeated behavior or multiple independent conversations; C = a single statement, possibly performed; D = inference from silence, body language, or the edit. ¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.