Frost Log Stockwatch — August 17, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers commit to the record before tonight's live show goes up — score them against the room's in real time. They post hours after the season's loudest ceremony: Devens fired the Diamond Power of Veto at Monday's veto meeting — Dee off the block, Kamu seated, Yash's own veto holstered — resolving the week's branch stack exactly along the fire path we drew (P178, P180, P184, P185 all land as hits, and the counter-read's holster case dies on its own discriminators). Scores are win equity — seat odds × jury odds — not weekly safety, and on a board where the man who just made the season's biggest move and the man it landed on both got repriced today, that distinction does most of the work below.

Angela — 3

Holds. She's still a nominee, but the modal branch now runs through Kamu's eviction, not hers, and her block week has been other people's arithmetic from the first key — she knew the swap's shape by 5:59 AM Sunday without ever learning the instrument's name. The human channel (Dee bond, birthday goodwill, Drew quietly drafting her into F2 plans) keeps her alive; the wrong-theory signature (3+ observations) keeps her from ever converting alive into winning.

Barrett — 4

Up one, mostly by subtraction: the double-warned renom pick watched the trapdoor open under someone else. He's inside Mosh Pit, adjacent to the power's pre-ceremony hint¹, second in OTEV, and no longer this week's convergent answer — but Taylor's pre-jury cut list still carries his name as her preferred FAP casualty, and his own agency remains the thinnest part of the file.

Dee — 8

Holds, with the composition inverting underneath. Everything she wanted happened — saved, Bribe still in pocket ("single power day"), Kamu on the block, Mosh Pit majority around her — but note the Game 2 ledger entry: her season's pivotal survival is Devens' resume item, not hers, and Yash spent the afternoon hinting her power to three more houseguests. Best endgame portfolio on the board, now visibly financed by someone else's spend, with a million-dollar secret still sitting in Lala's vault.

Devens — 7

Holds through the biggest authorship event of the season, and the hold is the argument. Game 1 landed almost impossibly soft — Kamu seated, the government gracious ("I can't even be mad at it"), Lala of all people thanking him — and the leaking secret converted to a footnote exactly as the fire case predicted. The cap swaps rather than shrinks: the knowledge-gap discount is gone, replaced by permanent public authorship with Taylor's "cut the head before jury" frame already on the record and no power left in the drawer.

Drew — 4

Up one, the climb continuing. Naming credit on the house's majority bloc, a confirmed bond with Melody, six weeks off every slate, and a Monday cam session showing genuine board-reading — threat rankings, F2 planning, an accurate "Devens is the most powerful person" delivered hours before the proof. Still zero comp equity and a regime that prices his vote as conditional; and Haley just pinned Taylor's Rome vote on him, a liability he doesn't know he's carrying.

Haley — 2

Up one from the floor, entirely on redirected heat: Kamu's seating means the modal Thursday no longer ends with her eviction. But this is safety, not equity — she's still a nominee, her two functioning allies (Kamu, Taylor) are a dead man walking and a woman who can't stand her, and her quietest stretch of the season is quiet in the passive sense, not the Ashley sense. The Block Buster remains her one lever, and it's the same lever everyone else is pricing.

Kamu — 2

Down three, the board's collapse. The funnel completed in a single ceremony — perceived, speakable, nominatable, evictable — via an instrument he never saw, and the votes performing loyalty to his face (Mallory and Melody agreed in the bathroom to vote him out and tell Yash later) are already committed against him. His one out is Thursday's Block Buster, where his comp record is real — and even that branch buys a week as the fixed target of an organized nine.

LaTrice — 3

Down one for the worst-timed side-pick of the season: she proposed the Covenant with the government roughly eighteen hours before the government lost its co-principal to a trapdoor. The pivot was fast — she thanked Devens effusively post-ceremony — and the $1M secret is still hers alone, but its buyer-side bloc just collapsed, and a player whose two moves in a week were joining the losing side and applauding the winners is trading on hospitality, not position.

Mallory — 4

Holds. The script execution on Yash was flawless, the Mosh Pit membership is real, and her post-ceremony management plan — don't blindside Yash, tell him before Thursday — is the most jury-literate instinct in her file. Debits: the false Dee-power theory is still circulating under her byline, and her whole stock remains performance-of-other-people's-plans rather than authorship.

Melody — 4

Up one on quiet compounding: latrine punishment served with theatrical grace, Mosh Pit seat, Bribe knowledge, the Drew bond deepening on a channel that carries both intel and affection, and a co-authored plan with Mallory to handle Yash honestly. She also holds a live grievance file on Kamu that Thursday will let her cash without ever raising her voice.

Taylor — 6

Holds, on the strangest ledger in the house: her reads went three-for-three inside 48 hours — "Devens is a liar," Devens is "the head," cut him before jury — and then the ceremony proved her right by destroying her side's power. Add the accidental gift of Haley attributing Taylor's own Rome vote to Drew, straight to Taylor's face. Cleanest position, sharpest instrument, currently attached to the losing bloc — the 6 prices the player, not the neighborhood.

Yash — 4

Holds, composition churning again. A three-win week (HOH, OTEV, plus the W1 safety on the resume), a legible bribe rejection, and a genuinely graceful response to being publicly overruled — all bridge-preserving. But his HOH ends with his F2 partner as the likely boot, his slate rewritten by a power he never detected, and a comp resume now posting to every threat ledger in the house. Utility player equity, comp-threat pricing.

Biggest mover: Kamu, 5 → 2 — the architect-insurer spent a week authoring another man's HOH and walked into Monday's ceremony as the one player in the house who couldn't see the instrument, completing the targeting funnel in a single feed cut.

¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.