Frost LogUnrequited dispatches from the information-asymmetry war, a.k.a. the #bb28 live feeds.

Frost Log Stockwatch — August 10, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers commit to the record before tonight's BB28 Stockwatch goes live — score them against the show's in real time. They post after today's veto ceremony closed the week's last open branch: Kamu left the board frozen, the Diamond Power of Veto slept through the first of its four windows exactly as priced (P145 at 88%, P148 at 85% — both hits), and Thursday is a Barrett/Chuk/Haley Block Buster with Haley the locked target of a ten-voter, tie-possible electorate. Scores are win equity — seat odds × jury odds — not weekly safety, and this week the gap between those two things is the whole board.

Versus the market

Week 4 accounting, our August 3 scores against the RHAP average — the tightest week either side has posted, every row within a point, so the calibration story is direction, not distance:

Net: the filed bias — we under-read conversion and social survivability — cost a point on Lala and Yash again, while our one out-of-market read (Dee) got dented by her own signature. Corrections below lean both ways.

Angela — 3

Down one, and it's a Game 2 write-down: the heat sink is now so total that cooking the house dinner reads to her target as an act of malice. Excluded from both live secrets, kindness converting to suspicion, endgame equity collapsed even as her weekly safety is fine — nobody's target, everybody's alibi. The wrong-theory pattern (3+ observations) says she won't analyze her way out.

Barrett — 3

Down one for passivity that's curdling into position loss. A nominee who won't discuss the veto with the veto holder because "it would be weird" is a player declining his own Game 1, and his survival Thursday rests entirely on the house wanting Haley more. First forward statement in a week (future targets Haley/Chuk) is a pulse, not a plan.

Chuk — 3

Holds at the floor above eviction. His best asset is one he can't see: Taylor's roadmap needs him alive as a weapon against the icons, which suppresses his evictability all week. The debit is behavioral — he lobbied the slate's secret architect by complaining about the mystery adviser who is the architect, and spent ceremony eve hanging out with Haley instead of campaigning. Kept, not keeping himself.

Dee — 8

Down one on the spender signature compounding: two Bribe disclosures inside fourteen hours, then escalation to directing Yash's lies and staged arguments — a directed liar is a witness, and this one holds an F2 with the man her Diary Room wants out. Still the most endgame-shaped portfolio on the board — Bribe in pocket, vault dyad with the DPOV holder, seats in every room — but her name is now written on a three-week roadmap she hasn't detected, and her deepest one-way channel (Kamu) reports inward to the room that wrote it.

Devens — 7

Holds, and the week validated the hold. The DPOV survived its first window unspent with the board frozen in his favor, the cover story bearing his name arrived pre-defused from its own architect, and he told Dee he'll burn the power in its final week if it's still unspent¹ — a reserve-holder with a declared floor. The cap is the same knowledge gap as last week, sharpened: he knows the fiction is fiction, not that it's also the HOH's private truth, and the icons plan schedules him third.

Drew — 3

Up one, the start of a slow climb off the season's steepest crater. Off the block, convened into the observer quad's first real council, holding an embargoed engineering read on Kamu that's now twice survived its own release date — the discipline is real even if the spend never comes. Keep-Haley preference plus self-priced "uproar" cost says he sees the board; win equity waits on him ever acting on it.

Haley — 1

Down three, the board's collapse. Nominated, target, veto lost, ceremony sealed — her survival is one Block Buster branch, and if she faces the vote the ledger caps her eviction at 75% only because manufactured consensus isn't a whip count. The killing detail is signature, not structure: three straight days holding a verified flipper and a closeable arithmetic problem, spent instead on spite-reading a spaghetti dinner.

Kamu — 5

Up one on the most leveraged weekend anyone's had: veto won, slate authored, cover story deployed in two directions, a trust deposit purchased from the DPOV holder he doesn't know is armed, and banked positions in three structures at once. Capped hard by the funnel: he is the named reference threat in every observer scenario, Melody's vendetta is now edit-corroborated, and Thursday power changes hands. Seat odds rising, ledger filling — the spread that can't hold.

LaTrice — 4

Up two, the market's vindication and our correction. The Wall win at 57, an auctioned-then-owned slate, a roadmap partnership with the house's best strategist, and a locked plan executed to the ceremony — agency the goat pricing said she didn't have. Held at 4 because HOH safety expires Thursday, the contempt displays ("cancer," room-ordering) are posting to other people's grievance ledgers, and her cover story is also her private truth — a live exposure if Devens ever asks who benefits.

Mallory — 4

Holds. Untethered on schedule, first houseguest to say "I want Kamu out" in plain words, floating structural plays (Kamu and Chuk in the same Block Buster), and possibly sitting on entrant-side power-pool knowledge¹ nobody has priced. Still all potential energy: the quad she convened agreed on nothing, and her one intel conduit remains leaky.

Melody — 3

Up one for the quietest asset accumulation on the bottom half: punishment served and expired, a hypothetical slate drafted (Devens/Chuk/Yash, Kamu backdoored), the anti-Drew trio named to Drew's face, and a Kamu vendetta the edit itself now narrates. The resume is still a juror's — declared positions, legible anger — but she's drafting like someone who intends to hold a pen.

Taylor — 6

Up one to the board's cleanest position: author of the only multi-week plan in the house, unleaked, staged spends landing exactly where aimed, zero funnel heat, and her one public exposure (the Lyric vote) three days unpulled. The cap is that the perception tax has started invoicing — Barrett and Drew clocked "Danielle Reyes vibes," Dee called her "dangerously smart" and is seeding an anti-Taylor campaign, Angela wants her gone. The sleeper tag precedes the target tag by about a week in this house; the roadmap needs to outrun it.

Yash — 4

Holds, with the composition of the 4 changing underneath. Inner circle everywhere, F2 with the week's engine, safe on every real slate — but he now carries two principals' scripts (Kamu's fabricated Chuk story, Dee's directed lying), and witnesses accumulate liability faster than utility players accumulate equity. Barrett and Drew flagging him as "dangerous"¹ is the first heat the hedge has ever drawn from below.

Biggest mover: Haley, 4 → 1 — the week-4 chair-holder to the week-5 corpse-in-waiting in one HOH cycle, and the fall was self-administered: she held every number she needed to blow up the vote and chose, three days running, to litigate a pasta dinner instead.

¹ Thin sourcing: single-source, an ambiguous name, or an unclear timestamp. Unmarked claims are solidly sourced.