Frost LogUnrequited dispatches from the information-asymmetry war, a.k.a. the #bb28 live feeds.

Frost Log Stockwatch — August 3, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers commit to the record before tonight's BB28 Stockwatch goes live — score them against the show's in real time. They post after today's veto ceremony resolved the week's last open branch: Taylor saved herself and Haley seated Lyric, exactly as the overnight fight foretold — so the board below prices a Drew/Lyric/Melody Block Buster Thursday and a house whose two real powers both live, undetected, inside one two-person alliance. Scores are win equity — seat odds × jury odds — not weekly safety, and several rows below diverge hard on exactly that line.

Versus the market

Week 3 accounting, our July 27 scores against the RHAP average:

Net: we win the funnels (Jason, Dee), the market wins the conversions (Haley, Taylor, Drew's collapse). The correction below leans accordingly.

Angela — 4

Down one: the included-excluded read hardened into structure — Wolf Pack exclusion runs toward a week, Yash's "who cares if Angela goes up" reached her ears, and her first offensive positioning of the season (stoking Haley–Kamu discord with Dee) is being run from outside the real power map. Real energy, wrong altitude; her camera-talk targeting of Drew (Grade C, performed to the lens) is about to be mooted by the house doing it for her.

Barrett — 4

Down one on the audit math. The window's busiest wire — Red Corner product out to Mallory near-continuously, tell-analysis in to Dee — is position as conduit, not author, and the script pile (loyalty pledges to Haley, Melody/Mallory, and the vets in the same 48 hours) is approaching the density where one cross-check burns him. He accidentally spoke the season's only correct power guess (Dee, fan-vote logic) and buried it himself; access without comprehension is 's cheapest seat.

Chuk — 4

Holds, barely. He joined Kamu's failed Mallory push and lost, absorbed Lyric's 3 AM hour without spending anything, and kept the advisor's chair — access intact, influence measurably down. His "no one would suspect I'm working with Dee and Devens" line is true and is also the problem: the suspicion-free edge runs toward two players who bank everything and disclose nothing.

Dee — 9

Up one to a number we don't hand out lightly. Jury-length BB Bribe, concealed through two sworn denials to her closest partner while arguing against a power-flush she secretly was the power in; Diamond Veto insider; coalition seat; target insurance running to Drew and Barrett simultaneously. That's the most endgame-shaped game on the board — Game 2 architecture built in week 4. The cap is the same two-name category Mallory voiced weeks ago ("the Survivor people") plus the one live exposure vector: P124 prices discovery at only 15%, but discovery would be structural, not cosmetic.

Devens — 7

Up one, and part of that is us paying down a three-week under-read the market kept winning. The Diamond Veto shadows every ceremony through Week 8, the invisibility streak hit an eighth window, and the leverage doctrine keeps extracting without spending. Held below the market's likely number for a reason the feeds can see and he can't: his hardest edge is asymmetric — he disclosed everything, she denied everything, twice — and a hub's power is bounded by its blindest mandatory spoke.

Drew — 2

Down four, the board's collapse. Nominated, doctrine primary, pawn fiction dead by his own gallows humor ("closing the backdoor is diabolical" — thin, single-source, but behavior-consistent), and his survival kit is one declared FU vote plus a Block Buster branch. The fatal part is authored: he has now personally recited his blow-up-the-Red-Corner plan to three members of the coalition hunting him. Win equity distinguishes the armed from the loud; he was only ever the second.

Haley — 4

Up one on demonstrated spine the file didn't predict: she held the Lyric renom against Kamu and Chuk jointly, against Drew's counter-pitch, across a full night — the strongest exercise of a chair this season, and it forced a signature refinement (folds to convened doctrine, holds against serial lobbying). Capped there because the Game 2 bill is already itemized: a grievance nomination she narrated as unemotional, a source burned to its victim, a costless deal sold as generous, and a power conviction ("Mallory, 1000%") that is flatly wrong. Agency up, jury ledger down — the definitional divergence.

Kamu — 4

Down one for losing the week's contested decision in public. The joint Mallory push was refused, the Lyric protection racket capped out ("only so much I can do"), the chair's resentment of him is on record twice, and the decoy-power credit Drew hands him is fading. Client-servicer games need clients who survive and patrons who listen; this window he had neither.

LaTrice — 2

Down one to goat pricing, fully earned. Fifth consecutive week protected-uninformed: reassured twice, consulted for hypothetical nominations she'll never make, blind to Lyric's defection, her own past target status, and the fact that three separate people pitched her as a pawn this window. Safety that comes from being safe to keep is exactly the equity that never converts — from below.

Lyric — 2

Down four alongside Drew, and hers is the faster physics: perceived → speakable → nominatable → seated in seventy-two hours, a completed funnel. The scramble made it worse at every step — six safety oaths, the Mallory-targets-you relay, receipts now held by Taylor via the HOH's own mouth — every sale confirming the buyer's stated case. She plausibly survives Thursday over Drew; surviving as the house's canonical example of why you nominate people is not win equity.

Mallory — 4

Up one on the strangest shield in the house: a power she doesn't hold. Haley's "1000%" phantom conviction plus the non-renom deal (costless to Haley, but Mallory can't know that) kept her off the board in a week she expected to be her hardest, and Devens floated her as "our new Drew" — both camps now want her as an asset. Caps: her entire intel apparatus is one leaky conduit (Barrett), and she believes — probably correctly — she loses next to Lyric on a block.

Melody — 2

Down one. Nominated, secondary target, and she spent the week converting anger into declared positions — the FU keep-vote for Drew, the mirror pep-talks, the open Lyric hatred — all of it legible to a house that punishes legibility. The corporate-host disclosure to Drew was charming and strategically free; the one-way intel flow she's accepted from him (her observation, her choice) is not. Survives Thursday in most branches; the resume being built is a juror's, not a finalist's.

Taylor — 5

Up one on the week's cleanest conversion: veto won on a truth-telling comp, self-save executed, air cleared with the HOH, and — the underpriced part — the receipt on Lyric delivered into her hands by Haley herself. From furniture to armed-and-informed in 48 hours, with two comp saves now posting to a ledger the house is starting to read ("Taylor is a sleeper" — Barrett, Grade C). The cap is that rising perception is the tax: the sleeper tag precedes the target tag by about a week in this house.

Yash — 4

Up one for the middle finally paying something: second in the HOH comp, a live F2 with Lyric plus simultaneous expectation management of her collapse (coaching the confrontation while quoting her worse odds — pivot artistry in its purest form), and no seat at any funeral. Capped by the F2 itself being a depreciating asset and by the Angela leak ("who cares if Angela goes up") reaching its subject — the first heat his hedging lifestyle has ever generated.

Biggest mover: Drew, 6 → 2 — four points in one HOH cycle, the season's steepest fall: the confirmed-leak portfolio, the sole overnight access, the never-nominated streak, all liquidated by a chair with a grievance and a target who kept narrating his own counterattack to the people executing him.