Frost LogUnrequited dispatches from the information-asymmetry war, a.k.a. the #bb28 live feeds.

Frost Log Stockwatch — July 27, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers commit to the record before tonight's BB28 Stockwatch goes live — score them against the panel's in real time. They post after today's veto ceremony resolved the last open branch of a scripted week: Lyric saved herself and Kamu renominated Jason (12:23 PT), exactly as he pre-announced to the whole house at yesterday's tea-party trial — so the board below prices a Jason/LaLa/Mallory Block Buster Thursday, no hypotheticals. Regime call is TRENDING STRUCTURED and thinning from inside; the numbers are win equity, not weekly safety, and this week those two things diverge violently in several rows.

Versus the panel

Week 2 accounting, our July 20 scores against the panel average:

Net: same shape as week 1 — we win on heat and transmission, they win on conversion and comp-adjacent equity. Two weeks is a pattern; the file notes it.

Angela — 5

Down one on a split verdict: P92 hit — she delivered the season's most explicit target declaration ("I want Drew out... I want to be the person to put him on the block") to a gym room of four — but her expose push was vetoed by Devens, she was silenced repeatedly at a trial she knew about in advance, and Haley's disclosure puts her at the bottom of the Red Corner she thinks she's core to. Real agency, rebuffed at every structural door, plus a live exposure branch if the gym cluster leaks (P96, 45%). The frame-artist signature amended to deliverer; the house's willingness to be delivered to did not.

Barrett — 5

Down one, and it's a correction more than an event: sixth consecutive window with no game output — his tea-party contribution was a dress and a strut, and he went unmentioned through a 54-minute trial despite Kamu's standing distrust. Zero heat is genuine seat equity; a blank Game 2 resume plus zero observed intent caps the price. Others still position him in both directions, which is safety he isn't authoring.

Chuk — 4

Holds, with the first flicker of agency in his file: he volunteered to "take the bullet" and nominate Drew himself — a real offer with real cost, but a single scene (Grade C on intent) contingent on comps he hasn't won since week 1. Meanwhile Kamu privately downgraded him to Dee in the same window, so his perceived membership is decaying exactly as his willingness to act arrives. Exclusion compounding into intent is worth watching, not yet worth pricing.

Dee — 8

Up one to the top of the board. Sole insider on the Diamond Veto, explicit two-layer game confessed to camera ("keep having Kamu/Chuk/Haley think they're running the game"), a seat in every structure including the emergent gym cluster, Kamu's unprompted "final five" pledge, and a containment record that survived direct needling — that's position, agency, and execution all posting at once. The cap is the one Mallory already voiced: "the Survivor people" is a two-name category, and her name leads it the moment the bloc needs a new target.

Devens — 6

Up two, the board's biggest re-rate. The Diamond Veto sits secretly under every ceremony through Week 9 while the house plans to "flush" a power out of the wrong man — seat-odds insurance no one else has. And the sink became a director this window: "blow up the house" to Kamu, anti-Taylor seeding to Yash/Drew, the Drew-expose veto, a stated target hierarchy. Held below 7 on two counts: the director read is one window old (hold lightly, per our own counter-read), and the Game 2 ledger — Rome's exit, the Jason trial he co-authored and privately called "really fucked up" — is accruing bitter jurors he keeps helping create.

Drew — 6

Down one as the ratio's denominator finally moves. The assets are intact — confirmed leak and still the sole overnight HOH access, relaying Jason's alliance pitch to Kamu at 2:30 AM; never nominated through four HOHs. But he's now speakable in every room he isn't in: Angela declared, Chuk volunteered, and only Devens' numbers-based veto is keeping the funnel stalled at coordination. Speakable-everywhere with one veto point between him and the block is a position priced on someone else's continued discretion.

Haley — 3

Holds at the floor of viability. She authored the week's contingency (pivot to LaLa if Jason self-saves) and keeps generating product — but the heat count reached four fronts (LaLa's snake tag, Melody's dislike, the Drew–Melody target list, and now Kamu's private downgrade) with observed awareness still zero. Activity without a shell; the shell still isn't coming.

Jason — 1

Formally renominated today after a week in which the target was publicly announced, prosecuted for 54 minutes, and answered with a 2 AM kettle meltdown and a morning of banging it outside the Diary Room. Survival is a single comp branch (P90, 35%), and the sympathy channel others opened for him Sunday is being spent down by his own theater — Haley's "this isn't a game anymore, this is who he is" is the vote-justification forming in real time. Win equity rounds to the scale's floor.

Kamu — 5

Down one for winning the week and paying for it in the wrong currency. The trial bought a public reframing of his broken promise — real — but it made him the most authorial figure in the house on the advice of a man holding a secret veto, and his own co-writers spent 23:51 in the pantry calling the plan "really fucked up" while flattering him to his face. Post-HOH exposure is building on a threat ledger he keeps posting to voluntarily; the "plan not changing" discipline held, which keeps this a 5 and not lower.

LaTrice — 3

Down one: still on the block after the ceremony, named as the boot in the majority's fallback branch if Jason self-saves (P93, 60%), and her loyal public defense of Jason at the trial added heat without adding a single vote she controls. Dee's gym-cluster verdict — "LaLa can't win" — is goat pricing: safety that comes from being safe to keep is exactly the equity that never converts. The "I just want to go home" murmurs (Grade C, camera talk) don't resolve P91 but don't help.

Lyric — 6

Up one on the cleanest week anyone's had: won the veto, saved herself today, and logged a second consecutive conversion of nomination into position. The post-trial reassurance of Jason ("everyone's cool with you") was cheap kindness with excellent jury-adjacent optics whatever the intent — the cold-cutter signature underneath ("get rid of LaLa... ice Jason out") stayed perfectly off-ledger. Off-book lawyer alpha intact; her ceiling is that every camp still sees her as absorbable rather than dangerous, which is also her protection.

Mallory — 3

Holds. She's on the block Thursday but with the widest floor of the three: Drew–Melody counted a keep-Mallory plan, Kamu told her outright he's rooting for her in the Block Buster, and she's only the boot in Dee's branch of the fallback split. The liability is unchanged from two weeks ago — she keeps saying target names into the leakiest rooms in the house, and Dee is already scripting how to "put the vote on her." Survival odds decent; win equity flat.

Melody — 3

Holds, with the file's most vindicated instinct: Drew confirmed in the HOH room, in his own words, that she's never been told the Tool Shed exists — her lie-catches were the correct read arriving early. Rising agency (the keep-Mallory operation is partly hers) priced against a structural fact she hasn't discovered: her closest edge passes her information one way and everyone else's the other. P94 (she learns by 7/31) sits at 30%; the number moves if it hits.

Taylor — 4

Up one for the best two seconds of the tea party — walking out of a pile-on, unquotable, dignity banked — plus continued evidence of genuine strategic architecture (the Tethers/Pillars framework, the still-unsuspected dissent vote, P78 hit). Priced against the pitch's hidden cost: it convinced Devens she's a threat, and he seeded that conclusion to Yash and Drew the same day — an enemy she doesn't know she has, made through the very play that showed her quality. Game 2 instincts real; Game 1 audience hostile.

Yash — 3

Holds. He ordered "the eruption" and got it delivered to his seat; his noms-would-be-a-mixed-bag patter is hedging as a lifestyle. Spectator affiliate remains the precise job title — safe, present, and structurally irrelevant to every decision made this window.

Biggest mover: Devens, 4 → 6 — in one window he acquired the season's most powerful hidden asset, watched the house organize a power-hunt around the wrong man, and switched from sink to director; the gap between his effective safety and his perceived threat is now the widest number on the board, and it's still widening.

Tonight's show: BB28 Stockwatch Week 3