Frost Log Stockwatch — July 20, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers commit to the record before tonight's BB28 Stockwatch goes live — score them against the panel's in real time. They also post after today's veto ceremony resolved the week's coin-flip: Devens used the veto on Lyric and renominated Rome (13:03 PT), so the board below prices a Jason/Melody/Rome Block Buster on Thursday, not a hypothetical. Chaos regime still governs — the bloc's target consensus is the house's one durable structure and its execution wobbled for 36 straight hours before landing exactly where Friday's plan pointed — so hold every number wide.

Versus the panel

Week 1 accounting, our July 13 scores against the panel average:

• Dee (us 6, panel 9) and Devens (us 4, panel 7) — the panel's week, mostly. Devens won HOH and veto and executed the season's first backdoor; Dee sits inner-three, un-nominatable, and won the ceremony argument. We discounted for ledger accrual that is now materializing (Mallory named both as targets overnight), but that's a week-3 liability priced a week early. Second consecutive vet under-read; the file notes it.
• Ashley (us 5, panel 3) — clean panel win. 14–0 eviction; our "unpriced Block Buster variable" never paid.
• Drew (7 across the board) — jointly vindicated, then some: the Kamu final-2 disclosure made him the most structurally loaded player in the house.
• Jason (us 3, panel 4) — our number: highest week-2 speakability in the house, and he was nominated within a day of feeds confirming it.

Net: the panel beat us where comps and seat-odds decided things; we beat them on transmission-map calls. That's the shape our regime theory predicts, which is not the same as an excuse.

Angela — 6

The ceremony is her scoreboard: the Lyric-save was her plan, argued twice against the Drew/Kamu axis, and it executed. The web (Jason's three-week contract, the Yash handshake, inner-three seat) is real Game 1 equity. The discount is fresh and specific: Rome told her to her face this morning that "the puppeteer" rumor is circulating, sourced to Jason — her operator's ledger just became speakable, which is the funnel stage where equity starts leaking. Egg costume through ~7/24 keeps her comp column empty, which cuts both ways.

Barrett — 6

Still the cleanest threat profile in the bloc: zero heat, direct HOH reassurance ("you're my boy"), the productive Mallory intel line, and this window the first counterintelligence read anyone's made on Drew — "little Dr. Will" (Grade C, single scene, but nobody else has said it out loud). Quiet-and-connected is seat equity; the Game 2 resume remains a blank page, which caps this.

Chuk — 4

In the bloc, unaudited, and made real membership-boundary calls (no Mallory, no Yash) — that's more agency than last week. But he's a spoke, not a hub: Lyric's flirt campaign targets him as a vote, and his read on her ("less threatening than Melody") arrived pre-packaged by the campaign itself. Position without independent information pricing.

Dee — 7

Up two, and it's an admission as much as an upgrade. Un-nominatable while the bloc holds, inner-three, co-author of the plan that just executed, and within an hour of the ceremony she was already shaping Thursday's vote (floating Melody-over-Jason to break the Drew pairing — she's pricing pairs nobody else has priced). The cap: Mallory said "I want the Survivor people gone" out loud in a leaky room, and Dee's name now leads the outcast target list. Her equity is a race between her steering and her speakability.

Devens — 4

Holding at 4 against the loudest week of the season, and the split is the whole framework: Game 1 spectacular (HOH, veto, backdoor executed, comp-proven on a puzzle-heavy meta), Game 2 hemorrhaging. He is now the single most nominatable player in the house — Mallory names him first, Rome leaves angry or stays vengeful, and he admitted on feeds he lied to Rome's face about the block. Three decision-reversals in thirteen hours is a signature, not a slump ("I go big and I go home" — his words, our forecast). Seat odds high this week, priced against a jury-construction trajectory that's already bitter.

Drew — 7

The portfolio grew again — Kamu final-2 confirmed covert, the fake-breakup intel moved an HOH decision, Melody committed her vote to his lead — and so did the invisible costs: Angela and Dee distrust him on record, Devens fed him a fictional inner-three (the HOH is running counterintelligence on him), and Barrett just coined "little Dr. Will." Still the house's best ratio of information held to threat perceived, but for the first time the ratio's denominator is moving.

Haley — 3

Second place in the HOH comp posted her only ledger entry, and it's the wrong column. Both sides use her as a witness (Lyric's "DONE" declaration, Rome's peace tour), LaTrice wants her out, Melody floated her as next week's target to Drew, and her "America's favorite" patter is actively irritating an inner-three member (Grade B — Angela's complaint reached Dee). All exposure, no shell — unchanged, and the shell isn't coming.

Jason — 2

On the block in the final configuration, formally ranked the bloc's target #2 in the same meeting that locked Rome as #1, with a no-backdoor promise that conspicuously excluded a tiebreak. His survival case is real but borrowed: Angela's contract, Rome's burnt-bridges comparison, and a Block Buster he nearly won the veto against. His paranoia stayed perfect ("there's gonna be a show tomorrow" — there was) and stayed unacted-upon, the season's most reliable signature.

Kamu — 6

The board's biggest re-rate. Two weeks ago he was the architect of a leaked alliance; the file now reads: pre-bloc final-2 with the house's other ghost, zero audits from anyone ("likable for now" is the harshest thing said about him), and this week he graduated from extraction hub to policy actor — reopened a locked HOH decision and ranked the target order in Devens's ear. His preferred branch lost at the ceremony, the first check on the axis. First external heat ever: Mallory's overnight list (Grade B, leaky room).

LaTrice — 4

Everyone's confidant, no one's number — and her closest attachment walks the plank Thursday. Rome's eviction orphans her most genuine bond while Angela's new roll-call alliance (Dee/Taylor/LaLa) got laughed off by Dee within the hour. Universally needed is real safety; universally uncommitted is zero agency. The number holds only because nobody can afford to nominate her yet.

Lyric — 5

She came off the block having convinced nearly the entire house to save her — a genuine social-game conversion, and the week's best Game 1 result by a nominee. Priced against it: the fake-breakup performance was scouted and sold to the HOH before the ceremony, so her save executed despite the act, not because of it, and the bloc's plan for her is explicit — Dee's "lost little puppy" absorption once Rome goes. Off-ledger lawyer alpha intact; her handler situation is the risk.

Mallory — 3

Down one, entirely self-funded: she named Devens, Dee, and Kamu as nomination targets and said "I want the Survivor people gone" — to Melody, the most-extracted player in the house, in a room with three separate leak lines. Kamu has already flagged her to the HOH twice; unverified single-source chatter has Devens slotting her third in his target order (Grade D, hold loosely). Rocket-science coffee repair is winning the kitchen; the transmission map is losing her the game.

Melody — 3

The "safe no matter what" promise broke on camera today — Plan A executed and she stands on the block Thursday, exactly the branch we flagged when the promise was made. Her advocates (Drew, Kamu) lost the ceremony fight, and within an hour Dee was floating evicting her over Jason to break the Drew pairing (Grade C, single post-ceremony scene). Real comp effort, real information-sharing era, and every word of it flows outward through Drew.

Rome — 2

The constant in every version of the plan is now the formal nominee, facing a 70%-priced eviction if he touches the vote, and his response was to act unbothered and call the man who did it "respectable." His only live equity is the Block Buster itself plus a loaded speech; his seed scheme (Jason as ammunition, the Haley thaw) remains undeployed with three days left. The fake-breakup cover was scouted before it ever ran — he's performing to an audience that has the script.

Taylor — 3

Fourth day, still functionally absent from the strategic layer — P58 (no substantive game conversation through 7/22) is trending hit, and we're past the point of crediting discipline without evidence of intent. The offsetting flicker: inbound interest she didn't generate — Dee calling her "really smart and real," Angela drafting her into the new alliance sketch. Equity that consists entirely of other people's plans for you rounds to 3.

Yash — 3

Up one for surviving his own methods. The triple hedge held another week, and the Angela handshake is real — but his alliance pitch to Devens (Barrett, Drew, no Dee) was relayed to the entire inner circle and openly laughed at within the hour, which is the transmission map working against him in real time. "Floundering," his own word, remains the most accurate self-assessment in the house.

Biggest mover: Kamu, 4 → 6 — two weeks from architect of a building the landlords planned to demolish to unaudited policy actor with a covert final-2 and a direct line into every HOH decision; the only player whose stock the house itself hasn't repriced.