Frost Log Stockwatch — July 13, 2026 (pre-show edition)

These numbers commit to the record before tonight's BB28 Roundtable Week 1 goes live — score them against the panel's in real time. One housekeeping note baked into everything below: the "Drew won HOH" report is resolved as fabrication; Dee's cycle runs intact, the veto ceremony landed today (Mallory self-vetoed, Ashley up, Yash the stated target), and Ashley/Taylor/Yash now face the still-unmapped Block Buster. Scores are win equity — Game 1 seat odds × Game 2 jury odds — not weekly safety, and we're in a week-one chaos regime, so treat every number as wide-intervaled.

Angela — 6

The house's most active soft operator: coaching the HOH on flattery, running loyalty roll-calls, claiming Ashley is "wrapped around her finger" (Grade C — her own account). The equity case: dense trust lines into every camp and a Crossovers seat. The discount: her F2 with Dee is conspicuously unreciprocated ("yeah, yeah, I agree," n=2), and today's "Motherfucker!" eruption over Jason's faked tears shows the volatility that posts her to the ledger faster than her work pays out.

Ashley — 5

On the block, but priced above her seat because the target is Yash and her one logged game act (the Devens/Drew duo callout) was accurate. discipline: one entry in a previously empty file is not a strategy — inability and restraint still tie in the evidence, so no invisible-winner premium yet. The Block Buster is an unpriced variable sitting directly on her chest; this number moves hard either direction Thursday.

Barrett — 6

Quietly holding the best threat-ledger profile in the Crossovers: late add, dumb-pact cover with the HOH, "no one is clocking us" by his own read, and today he told Drew he's leaning against winning next HOH — textbook late-inflection instinct, day six (Grade C, single scene). Zero perceived threat plus a wall of shields is real Game 1 equity; the question is whether a resume ever forms for Game 2.

Chuk — 4

Perceptive, quiet, and structurally targeted: Dee privately hates him (Grade A), and the two double agents inside his own Red Corner have named his trio the threat. His Haley F2 still has zero logged game conversations — a week-old silence we hold as hypothesis, not virtue. Position without agency in a compromised alliance prices low.

Dee — 6

The most interesting split file in the house: deliberate architect (two alliances, division-of-labor plan, Cafe Con Leche fake-out with Jason today), driftable tactician (the renom followed Latrice's lobby, not her plan), and private contempt for the underestimation ("fuckin idiots," Grade A). Her agency is the highest on the board — but she's a vet who inflected in week one, her co-architect leaks, and the "needs guidance" narrative is already three days into reproduction. Big seat odds, mounting ledger; the product caps at 6.

Devens — 4

Jason has privately made him the house's #1 target, and the speakability of "the Survivor guy" is climbing — he's the easiest name in the house to say out loud. Meanwhile his own file reads high-throughput, low-discretion (n=3 spends in ~30 hours, Red Corner leak included), which means his double-agent seat is a wasting asset. Great access, poor sealing, big reputation: the funnel is moving against him.

Drew — 7

Top of the board, and note it rests on nothing phantom — the fake HOH is voided; this is about the real portfolio. He holds Jason's full target list (handed to him free, 22:48), a counterfeit F2 with Melody, a Crossovers seat, and near-zero ledger presence. One crack, single-scene: Angela flagged his conflicting stories to Devens today (Grade C) — the ghost's first counterintelligence problem. Best current ratio of information held to threat perceived.

Haley — 3

Cross-cut into structural danger: tasked as Kamu's intel asset, floating a rival team with Melody/Ashley, pushing Latrice as renom against the HOH's explicit read, and goading an Angela–Latrice fight. Dee's private verdict — "annoying and a fucking liar too" (Grade A) — is the kind of ledger entry that converts to a nomination the moment it becomes speakable. All exposure, no shell.

Jason — 3

The steepest 24-hour decline on record. His target list sits with the opposition, Drew relayed his anti-Devens campaign to both Dee and Devens, and Angela now believes the tears were fake — three separate channels burned, all traceable to his own distribution signature (n=5+ narrative spends). High social gravity keeps him off the floor, but week-one safety expires Thursday and his week-2 speakability is the highest in the house.

Kamu — 4

Founded and named Red Corner, built an intel arm — real structural instinct. But the alliance was leaked to the Crossovers within hours of its christening, Dee and Drew privately "don't trust him at all" and are already scheduling him ("if you want to take him out next week I'm down," Grade A), and he has no visibility into any of it. An architect of a building the landlords plan to demolish.

Latrice — 4

Genuine agency — her lobby produced the actual renom, a fact almost nobody in the house can claim — and Mama's Angels gives her a declared home. The offset: Drew hates her (stated bluntly today, Grade A), Devens calls disliking her "a personal problem," and Haley is actively shopping her as a renom. Effective operator, deteriorating ledger.

Lyric — 4

The largest gap in the house between pricing ("Spongebob") and profile (secret lawyer, 650K TikTok, sharp enough to clock the mispricing). That's off-ledger alpha — but it's all escrowed with Rome, whose showmance cover is already breached and being used as target logic by Mallory and Melody. Her equity is currently a call option on one man's discretion.

Mallory — 4

Veto win posted a comp entry to her ledger in week one — early inflection — and her grudge list now circulates as both armor (Taylor's keep-her pitch) and targeting doctrine (the Crossovers' point-the-missile plan). Being protected because you're dangerous is Game 1 safety and Game 2 poison: missiles get launched, then discarded.

Melody — 3

Her portfolio is counterfeit and she doesn't know it: the Drew F2 is fake from his side, the Angela cold war is mutual and confirmed by both parties, and she escaped the block only because Ashley absorbed the seat. Decent reads, no real assets — the classic profile of a player whose first power vacuum goes badly.

Rome — 5

Best collection-to-emission ratio in the house: holding Yash's alliance pitch, Devens' confessions, and Lyric's deepest secrets while disclosing almost nothing real. Mama's Angels plus the showmance gives him two homes — but the showmance perimeter is breached, and his own trio just named Ashley as the eviction preference while he plays both rooms. Discreet, but accumulating entanglements faster than cover.

Taylor — 3

The most active campaign in the house — vote asks, coalition-building, the Latrice pipeline — and it's genuinely bought her votes. But she's on the block facing an unknown mechanic, her "face is LOUD" (per Latrice), and her equity depends on Yash staying the target through four more days of a house where the renom already flipped once on a single lobby. Position keeps outrunning seat; the seat is what's at risk Thursday.

Yash — 2

The stated target, delivering minimal campaigning, whose DR line after the HOH was "I'm feeling safe and I'm feeling good" — the certainty-inversely-correlated-with-accuracy pattern we keep a named file for. His one move (the seven-person pitch) was soft-rejected by Rome. Only the Block Buster's unknown mechanics keep this off the floor.

Biggest mover: Jason — from the house's best-connected social hub to a player whose target list, fake tears, and anti-vet campaign all reached their subjects within a single day, entirely through his own transmission habits.